In his speech he said:

 It’s great to be back in Cardiff.  This time last year I said the dragon of Welsh Conservatism would roar once more......and look what happened last May.  From Aberconwy in the North, to the Vale of Glamorgan in the South from the mountains to the valleys, the message rang out the Conservatives are back – back in Wales, back in government, back serving the country we love once more.

And this wasn’t just the pendulum swinging our way again. It was because of the out-and-out hard work of the team here in Wales.  The team at the top – Cheryl, Nick: thank you for everything that you’ve done.  And to the team on the ground you fought that election last May with guts, with passion and with perseverance and we will need every ounce of that fighting spirit for the Assembly elections this May.

Let us get out there and show Labour that they cannot take Wales for granted.  And together we must tell people about the policies that you campaigned for and we are delivering.

We said that work should always pay and today, thanks to Iain Duncan Smith and his brave reforms of welfare, that is what is happening – we are ending that benefits culture once and for all.  We said we’d had enough of politicians handing British powers over to Brussels as though they were theirs to give rather than ours to keep and now thanks to William Hague and the referendum lock he’s bringing in, that can never ever happen again.

 We said – you know what? – here is a novel idea: isn’t it time our children learned about the great history of our country in school? And I can tell you that thanks to Michael Gove, our island story is going to be told once more.  We said we’d freeze council tax – we’ve frozen it.  We said we’d cap immigration – we’ve capped it.  We said we would honour those fighting out in Afghanistan to keep us safe at home.  And the operational allowance for our brave servicemen and women – we have doubled it.  

So my friends we’ve begun to fix all those things that need fixing in our country and we can’t expect the media to tell people about it – we’ve got to get out there and do it ourselves.  I get a lot of letters these days, and a lot of emails, and I have to say they’re something of a mixed bag.  But I did get this email just a couple of weeks ago from a man from Leicestershire called Ray.  This is what Ray said: 

“Dear Sir, as a long-time Labour supporter, I find myself horrified at this government.  When you were elected, I was determined to despise every move you made and rub my hands in glee each time I heard of the latest new horror you were about to inflict on this country. I’ve been gearing myself up for months to have a good old rant about you. Then you have to go and spoil it. The policies you are making, the changes you are making, appear to be good for this country. Please do something horrible before my world is shattered.”

I’m sorry Ray – I’m going to keep on disappointing you.  So people tell me lots of things. There’s never a shortage of advice in this job.  But I tell you – I’ve never heard anyone say this: “What I really want – what would really restore my faith in politics – is the Alternative Vote system.”  We’re amongst friends, so let’s be clear what the campaigners for AV want us to do.  They want us to ditch a voting system that has served our democracy for centuries that is used by almost half the electors on the planet and that, yes – is simple, it’s clear, it’s decisive, which time and again has given people the power to kick out tired governments.  And for what? 

Do you realise that under the system they propose, candidates who come third can actually end up winning?  Just think about that.  Just imagine it’s the Olympics, London 2012.   We’re all watching the 100 metres.  Usain Bolt powers first over the line.  But then he gets to the podium, it’s the guy who comes third who gets the gold.  We wouldn’t put up this in the Olympics what on earth are we doing thinking about it for our politics.  Let me ask everyone in this room a couple of questions:   

Do you want a system so undemocratic that your vote for a mainstream party counts once, while someone who supports a fringe party like the BNP gets their votes counted several times?

Do you want that?

 Do you want a system so obscure it’s only used by three countries in the whole world – Australia, Fiji and Papua New Guinea? Do you want that?  So - no to AV.  Let us take our argument to the British people, let’s give it everything we’ve got and let’s win that referendum in May. 

When we came into office ten months ago, we inherited a dreadful mess.  A broken economy. A broken society. A broken politics.  The worst of this inheritance was the state of the public finances.  I will never forget sitting down, going through the books and seeing some of the spending decisions that were made by the last government.  They had left a £38 billion black hole in the defence budget.   One pound out of every four we spent was borrowed.  We were spending - this country was spending £120 million a day – that is each and every day – just on paying the interest on our debt.  And yet even with these bills piling up, Labour were still signing blank cheques and giving the green light to multi-million pound projects we couldn’t afford.  And we’re still uncovering them today.   

Because of those PFI contracts, in one hospital it cost £333 to change a light-bulb. What on earth did they think they were doing?    I say, let’s make this a light-bulb moment for the country: never, ever trust Labour with your money ever ever again. 

They were setting up our country for the complete car crash of falling market confidence, higher interest rates, higher taxes, more bankruptcies and more job losses.  But in the end, this isn’t just about the economics. It’s also about the morality of it all.  They were happy just to pass these debts on to our children because they didn’t have the guts to do something about it.   

Now, we have set out a credible plan to balance the books. We are making the necessary cuts in public spending.  Yes, the road ahead will be hard; this year in particular.  But the plan is right.  Our credit rating has been confirmed. Market interest rates are lower. We’re on course to balance the books by the end of this Parliament.  What we’re doing might not be popular – but it is the only way.  The other way is the cowardly way, the irresponsible way and that has never, ever been the Conservative way.  

But I want to be clear about something today: our plans for government go so much further than just sorting out the deficit and balancing the books.  Remember who we fought the election for.  I know who I fought it for.  The stream of mothers who told me they were desperate to find a good school for their children.  The people who told me they were sick of going out to work knowing their neighbours were on benefits – but had no intention of getting a job.  It was for the businessman who wrote to me in tears because he was going to lose everything he worked for – all of it crushed under the weight of regulation. 

That’s who we fought the election for.

Now remember what we fought the election for: our values – the Conservative values that we knew could improve people’s lives and make our country better. We believe in responsibility – doing the right thing even if it’s the difficult thing, and understanding our obligations to others. That is why I am so passionate about building a bigger, stronger society.  The idea at the heart of this is something everyone in this room instinctively understands.  That if we want a better country and a stronger society, we must all play our part.  That’s why we’re opening up public services, devolving more power, encouraging a new wave of volunteering, asking people to take more responsibility because responsibility is what the Big Society is all about. 

We believe in real fairness.  Not the phoney fairness we’ve seen in this country for too long, where people who do the wrong thing get rewarded and people who do the right thing, who work hard, pay their taxes, who stay out of trouble get punished.  We mean real fairness – yes, help for those who cannot help themselves but also that sense that reward should be linked to behaviour.  It’s fair that when someone goes to work, they give something of what they earn to support the person who can’t work.  But here’s the deal: the person who can’t work, needs to prove it – and if it turns out they can work but they refuse to: they cannot live a life on benefits.

We also believe in real compassion.With the spending cuts we’ve got to make, we have made the conscious choice to look after the most vulnerable people in our country.  We’ve protected the NHS – and by the way, the Conservatives are the only party in Wales promising to do the same here. We’ve protected schools – with extra funding for children from poorer backgrounds.  We’ve protected the families with the least – with an extra £180 in tax credits in this year alone. And we’ve protected our elderly too – by finally doing what every government promised but never ever delivered and that is restoring the link between earnings and pensions. 

This sort of compassion is in our nature. 

Go to almost any community hall, any neighbourhood association or any charity sale up and down the country and you’ll find members of this party. And just as we show compassion at home, so we show it abroad too. While Labour were doing those dodgy deals with dictators in the desert remember, we – the people of this party – were out volunteering in Rwanda, building schools and teaching English, showing what real compassion means in practice.  I know that for some protecting the aid budget is a controversial decision.  But just think about what it means. It means that in four years’ time, we won’t just have paid down our deficit.  This country will also have vaccinated more of the world’s poorest children than there are people in the whole of England. We’ll have provided access to safe drinking water to more of the world’s poor than there are people in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland combined. Because of what we’re doing, mothers who otherwise would have died agonising deaths in childbirth will actually see their babies go on to be children and grownups. With your hard-earned money, we are saving lives – and everyone in this country should be deeply proud of that.Let’s show that same solidarity in our support for those out on the streets of North Africa and the Middle East today. 

When Margaret Thatcher was Prime Minister, this party stood by those who wanted to reject Communism and embrace freedom.  And today, this party stands for and stands by those reaching for freedom in the Arab world. On Libya, our strategy is clear.  We will continue to intensify pressure on that regime.  We will continue to state clearly that international justice has a long reach and a long memory, and those who commit crimes against humanity will not go unpunished. We will continue to provide humanitarian assistance to those affected by this crisis, and continue to demand access for aid agencies to reach those in need. And we will continue to plan, with our allies, for every eventuality.  

But let me repeat one thing, it is time for Colonel Gaddafi to go.

Now in just over two weeks’ time, George Osborne will present his Budget for Growth.  That’s why today I want to focus on another value that runs deep, really deep in this party.  It’s about the hunger to get on in life.  The spark of initiative.  The courage to make your dream happen.  The hard work to see it through.  I’m talking about enterprise.

 Enterprise is vital for our economy – we all know that. In this country we have got to to undertake a fundamental rebalancing of our economy.  Less debt, more saving. Less borrowing, more investment. Less dependence on financial services, more new industries, exports and trade.  But for we Conservatives, enterprise is about more than money, more than the economics of growth and GDP.  We understand that enterprise is not just about markets it’s also about morals.  We understand that enterprise is not just an economic good, it’s a social good too.  We understand this because we understand what it’s like in a way that our opponents simply don’t.

 Look – I know - all political parties have their fair share of lawyers, lecturers and advisers. I should know and a lot of them work very hard.  But I think one of the great things about our party – the Conservative Party – is that at our roots we are the party of builders and businesswomen; electricians and engineers; roofers and retailers.  At its beating heart this is still a party of start-ups, go-getters, risk-takers.  What drives us is getting things done – and what drives us mad is the bureaucracy, the forms, the nonsense that get in our way.  We’re the party of practical men and women, people with a passion and a mission to build a business and see it grow not just for the money, not for the glory but for the simple reward and deep satisfaction of seeing your efforts pay off.  We are the party of enterprise. And let me tell you – right now, right here today in Britain 2011, we have got the most almighty job to do.  Because for over a decade in this country the enemies of enterprise have had their way.  Taxing.  Regulating.  Smothering. Crushing.  Getting in the way.

 There is no shortage of enterprise in this country.  You see it in the 30,000-plus new firms that were started in January this year alone. I see it in the ideas and the energy of all the entrepreneurs I meet- I get to meet some extraordinary people in this job. British people selling curries to India and fashion to France.  The enterprise culture is alive and well in this country now we just need an enterprise government to go with it. So I can announce today that we are taking on the enemies of enterprise.  

The bureaucrats in government departments who concoct those ridiculous rules and regulations that make life impossible, particularly for small firms.  The town hall officials who take forever with those planning decisions that can be make or break for a business - and the investment and jobs that go with it. The public sector procurement managers who think that the answer to everything is a big contract with a big business and who shut out millions of Britain’s small and medium sized companies from a massive potential market. So you want to know my strategy for growth?

When people say ‘spend lots more money’ I say forget it – Labour spent it all.  There’s only one strategy for growth we can have now and that is rolling up our sleeves and doing everything possible to make it easier for people to start a business to grow a businesses. Back small firms.  Boost enterprise.  Be on the side of everyone in this country who wants to create jobs, and wealth and opportunity. I know there’s an enterprise culture in this country.  I know that we’ve got the people, the ideas, the talent, the energy to make things great.  And I’m going to make sure this government does everything it takes. 

So I can tell you today, the Budget in a few weeks time will tear down the barriers of enterprise and be the most pro-growth Budget this government, this country has seen for a generation.  

For a lot of people there’s one simple barrier – they just don’t have the money.  They’ve got a great idea but they’re out of work so they can’t bring it to life.  That is where our New Enterprise Allowance comes in.  If you’re unemployed and have a sound business plan we’ll give you a package of support worth up to £2000 to get you started.  In the very first month of this scheme up in St Helens in Merseyside over two hundred people came forward.  This is really going to take off – why? Because we know it worked when it happened before.  Go to major department stores in this country and you’ll find Superdry clothes –a British brand that’s gone global and is worth tens of millions of pounds.  And you know how it started? From a market stall in the eighties, by a guy who’d been unemployed for nine weeks, but who got one of Margaret Thatcher’s Enterprise Allowances and the hand up that he needed.

But sometimes it’s not the money to start up that holds enterprise back but the money to keep going – the cash flow.  So many businesses are finding it hard to get credit from banks today.  We’ll we’ve got another £10 billion for small businesses from the banks and my guarantee to you is this: I’m going to watch those banks like a hawk and make sure they deliver for Britain’s small business men and women.  What else is it that’s holding enterprise back? 

I think even baby Florence could tell me this one. She tells me quite a lot of things in her own way. Tax and regulation. So yes, we’re cutting corporation tax from twenty-eight percent to twenty-four percent but there is so much more to do.  Someone joked to me the other day that the biggest growth industry in Britain this past decade has been the people writing the rules. But the problem is, it isn’t a joke.  Every regulator, every official, every bureaucrat in government has got to understand that we cannot afford to keep loading costs onto business because frankly they cannot take any more.  And if I have to pull these people into my office to argue this out myself and get them off the backs of business then believe me, I will do it.   

But you know what, some people think that this is all government needs to do – cut tax and regulation and just get out the way.  I don’t disagree.  An enterprise government is an active government using its power and clout to open up new opportunities for business. Government is one of the biggest customers in the country.  We’ve got billions of pounds of contracts to be won but for too long they’ve gone to the same old big players.  So we’re throwing open the bidding process to every single business in our country – a massive boost for small businesses, because we want them to win at least a quarter of these deals.

 But it’s not just small business we need to get behind.  We’re smashing down the barriers for our big-ticket industries too. Britain’s got a real edge in medical research.  In this country today we’re developing the drugs and treatments that are going to banish some of the world’s diseases and save countless lives. But we cannot be complacent about the advantage we have. That’s why we’re bringing in a new ten per cent tax rate on patent income – to encourage companies not just to innovate here but to invest here, to expand here, to employ here and I’ve personally been on the phone to the heads of some of the biggest pharmaceutical companies to get them to do just that.  And here’s another thing I’ve personally been doing.  And that is selling Britain to the world.

 I know some people are disdainful about that.  They see me loading up a plane with businesspeople and say – that’s not statesmanship, that’s salesmanship.  I say this: attack all you want but do you think the Germans and the French and the Americans are all sitting at home waiting for business to fall into their lap?  Of course not – they’re out there selling their goods – and so should we in this country as well and we shouldn’t listen either to those who say we’ve not got much to sell.

 I’ve been to one of the most impressive, massive, hi-tech, large-scale manufacturing plants on the planet and it’s right here in Wales, at Broughton.  There I saw hundred foot wings for the A380 airbus being made by some of the finest engineers wings that are going to take flight in years to come. Yes, of course we need to make more things in this country, but we already have many of the goods and services the world wants to buy.  So let me tell you: while there are contracts to be won, jobs to be created, markets to be defended – I will be there.  If it’s making sure Rolls Royce engines are in the world’s planes, I’ll be there.  If it’s making sure skyscrapers in the Gulf are designed by British architects, I’ll be there.  I’ll be there not just because it’s my job, not just because it’s my duty, - because I but because I passionately believe – no, I know that this country can out-compete, out-perform, out-hustle the best in the world and I’m going to make sure I use every last drop of my energy to make sure that happens for our country. 

 So, let this be our vision: A country not just back in the black but back in business. A big society. A prouder people.  And we know the values that are going to get us there. Responsibility. Real fairness. Compassion. And yes – enterprise. I believe in this country’s future. I’m so confident about what lies ahead. And that confidence doesn’t come from here – it doesn’t come from me it comes from out there – from you.  I’ve met ingenious inventors in our labs and razor-sharp kids in our schools ambitious workers in our offices and factories unbelievably dedicated professionals in our hospitals and our police stations and in all these people collectively – in their initiative, their ideas and ambition – there is the promise of a better future.

 At its best and at its most effective the Conservative Party has always been the one that understands the power and the promise lies not in government but lies with the people. A great man said “set the people free” – and that’s what Winston Churchill did when he had his bonfire of state controls.  A lady said “there was almost nothing that the British people could not do” – and that’s what Margaret Thatcher proved, unleashing a wave of enterprise and initiative across our country. Today let the same confidence ring out from this hall and this party we believe in the British people and our power together to build a better future. 

Together we’ll create the businesses we’ll create the jobs, we’ll create the opportunities, we’ll light the spark of enterprise, we’ll fire our economy, we’ll drive our country forward.  And together we will do it.

I challenge anyone who wants a better future for our country to read this speech and not feel an immediate need to get out there and knock on doors to ensure that this failed Labour administration is soundly beaten on the 6th of May or even the 3rd of June if Gordon Brown bottles the election once more.

Guto

Invited to come – delighted to accept. 

Within weeks there will be a General Election.  Bias in the system means we need a big lead in votes to get a lead in seats.  Nothing can be taken for granted:  it will be hard pounding to get a clear majority.   

When we lost – in 1997 – we had been in Government for 18 years:  it was too long, and many electors thought a fifth successive win would be bad for democracy. 

But it is ironic that in May 1997 the electorate turfed out the only Government in the last 50 years to leave Office with every single economic indicator improving, and elected a Party that has ended up bankrupting the Nation. 

I don’t believe most people yet realise how seriously we are in debt.  The man who promised to end “Boom and Bust” has led us into the biggest Bust for 70 years.  Under Gordon Brown, debt is a runaway train.  During the three hours we are here for dinner this evening, the Government will have borrowed another £60 million and it is we – the taxpayers – who will have to pay it back.  We will – literally – be repaying Labour’s debts for the rest of our lives.    

The shocking reality is that – if we win the next election – David Cameron will face a far worse problem in 2010 than Margaret Thatcher faced in 1979.  Let me be blunt:  whatever the result of the election, nearly everybody in the country is going to see the quality of their life reduced.

Nor – as he does – can Gordon Brown blame anyone but himself.  For him to do so – with no acknowledgement of his failure – beggers belief.

This is, of course, very New Labour.  Self-preservation first.  And the truth nowhere in sight.

Of course there has been an international dimension.  But most of our problems are home grown.  Even without the financial crisis:

-        We would still be in recession. 

-        Debt would still be at record levels. 

-        Unemployment would still be blighting too many lives.

-        Our banking system would still have been poorly regulated.

-        Our pension system would still have been wrecked. 

-        Our education system would still need reform. 

-        Our health system would still be unable to cope. 

-        Our civil liberties would still have been compromised.

-        And our prison system would still be overflowing with prisoners who need not be there, whilst others who should be there are given early release.    

All that is pure New Labour Britain:  this is their legacy.  Not the Americans.  Not the speculators.  Not even the Bankers.  None of it can be blamed on anyone else.  Only on Labour:  they have damaged the lifestyle of millions for years to come.

For nearly everyone, their security in life is:  job;  home;  pension.  After twelve years of Labour, none of them is secure.  Jobs lost.  Homes fallen in value.  And Gordon Brown killed final salary-related pensions with a tax, and damaged personal pensions with economic mis-management.  He is responsible for a generation of poor pensioners.  Labour cannot be trusted to put this right:  no-one trusts the mugger to set the broken bones.

At the moment, there is a dangerous gap between politicians and public.  There is a lack of trust:  only the unvarnished truth at all times will correct this.  And politicians seem to talk a different language to the public.  We need to put that right.  Because we are a serious political Party we talk a great deal about the economy, or reducing debt, or becoming competitive – all of which are important – but we should recognise also that to millions of people that is simply abstract economics. 

It is why politics often seems so remote.  We should focus more on the hopes and fears people have in their daily lives.  Most of these are family orientated:

• Can I get back into work?
• Can I get the right school for my child?
• How quickly can / will I get treatment for an illness?
• Can I pay the mortgage – or get on the housing ladder?
• How can I get help with care for an elderly or sick relative; or care for a child that is damaged and has special needs?
• Can I get away from this sink estate?

These are the worries that keep people awake at night, and dominate their lives.  We need to think on this personal level.

I recommend a note on the desk of every MP.  It should read:  how does what I am about to do affect the people of this country?  That should be their first thought:  not “Is this popular?”  Or “Will it win votes?”.

We must end the culture of promises that can’t be kept.  The British people aren’t stupid.  They know we can’t go on living in a financial never-never land.  So – tell them the truth.  Tell them what Labour has done.  And what we must now do. 

Two years from now –when the legacy of New Labour will be at its worst ­– people must understand that the blame rests with the policies of Blair and Brown – not the remedies of Cameron and Osborne.    

As ever, Labour will try and shift the blame.  We mustn’t let them get away with that.  The blame must rest squarely where it belongs.  So, let us tell the truth about them with the same vehemence with which they lie about us.

After great crises often come great changes.  Gordon Brown is right about one thing – the world has changed.  Necessity compels us to cut our cloth according to our means.  With wise policy, we can turn this crisis into worthwhile policy. 

What can be done?

We could simply top-slice budgets, with everyone bearing an equal share of the pain.  That is easy to do – but a mistake.

Or we could prioritise. 

We could re-shape Government, reduce it in size, be selective about what Government does, cut out whole functions, abolish unnecessary bodies, cut quangos, end the billions wasted on consultancies, on rebranding, and on fake schemes that serve only as political window-dressing. 

We must wean the nation off the belief that good Government means high public spending on everything.  We must spend on priorities, but compassionate policies do not necessarily mean big Government.  Smaller Government is necessary for financial reasons:  but it is also desirable.  We are over-governed.  Tories should not be defensive about dismantling the intrusive power of the State. 

We should never accept that big is better.  Big Government inhibits and confines;  it weakens ambition;  it cuts back on opportunity;  it undermines enterprise.  Often, it is anti-libertarian.  For many people – unfamiliar with Government and perhaps unsophisticated about it – it induces wariness, even fear, of The Man in Whitehall.  Yet – in a free society – The Man in Whitehall – civil servant and politician – is the servant of the nation, not its master.  So it must be again. 

And we must lift our eyes beyond domestic concerns, to see clearly our role in the wider world.  Wealth is moving to the East:  unless we re-create a competitive economy, that will continue.  The choice is simple:  we either reform, or we become less relevant, less well-off and a political and economic backwater.

David Cameron has referred often to the “broken society”, and we all know what he means by that.  We have to sustain the family unit.  Cut crime.  End the culture of dependency.  Improve social mobility.  Last year, fewer homes were built than at any time since the 1940s.  That is truly shocking:  it leaves people trapped – and often without work – in poor communities. 

We need to move from a celebrity-drenched culture to an opportunity society.  And, for everyone’s sake, we need to give talent and genius free rein and promote excellence in education by levelling up, not levelling down.  And we should dismantle the Nanny society in which adults are treated like children and children are treated like adults.

We need to move away from a Government obsessed by presentation and short-term popularity, to one obsessed by serious policies and long-term results.  It’s time to say goodbye to this sound-bite society.  We should say to the electorate – these are our objectives and this is how we will achieve them.  The Agenda is huge and, in our complex world, none of it will be easy to deliver.  But we Conservatives have done it before, and now need to do it again. 

At the next election, New Labour will have yet another Big Lie.  They always do.  It’s in their electioneering DNA. 

In 1997, they told electors we would abolish the State Pension.  They knew this was a lie. 

In 2001, they claimed to have “saved the British economy”.  Another lie:  we Tories created the most competitive economy in Europe.  Labour wrecked it. 

In 2005, they said we would slash public services.  Yet another lie.  And now – as we know from leaked documents – they are themselves planning cuts of nearly 10%.

When I hear such barefaced deceit by Labour, I sometimes wonder if they have any self-recognition at all?  Have they lost all touch with reality?  Or is the truth a constant stranger to their political soul? 

In 2010, when the failures of their own record in Government have been so woefully exposed, we can be sure they will resort to attacking our personalities and policies – indeed they are already doing so.  Because they cannot defend what they have done, they will attack what they say we will do.  It’s an old tactic. 

So be ready for - at least – three Big Lies.

First, the old chestnut that “ruthless, heartless Tories don’t care”:  they say we will cut schools and hospitals first.  Why on earth would we do that?  Our children go to those schools.  We use these hospitals.  It is we – not Labour – who will cut the size of the State – precisely to protect the most vital services. 

As for Tories not caring – look at Charities and Community Services up and down the UK:  who are they supported by in every town and village?  Conservative volunteers.

Second, that “all Tories are toffs – they don’t know anything about ordinary people”.  What inverted snobbery – and what a grotesque travesty of the truth.  How many of you here this evening live a carefree and leisurely life?  How many of you have not – at one time or another – faced problems with bills, mortgages and family crises?  Of course you have – we all have.  As a boy, I look back with such affection on my own privileged upbringing – full of all the luxuries life offered in a multi-occupied, multi-racial house in Brixton.  This class-based politics, setting citizen against citizen, is just beneath contempt. 

Third, Judgement.  Gordon Brown has already set this kite flying, in his Party Conference speech.

Let me quote:

“I say the test for a Government is the quality of its judgement”.

Quite so Gordon.  So let’s take a look at the quality of some of Labour’s judgements over the last 12 years:

-         Was it good judgement – or even legal – to go to war in Iraq?

-         Was it good judgement to move into Afghanistan with no clear military objective?

-         Was it good judgement to under-equip our troops – both in Iraq and Afghanistan?

-         Was it good judgement to go on such a reckless public spending spree that we have become one of the most indebted nations in the world?

-         Was it good judgement to sell our Gold reserves at the very bottom of the market?

-         Was it good judgement to force through 24 hour drinking, which has led to an increase in drunkenness and inner city crime?

-         Was it good judgement to pile so much paperwork on the police that they spend more time form-filling and less time protecting our neighbourhoods?

If judgement is the test – Labour have failed spectacularly.

Over twelve years, New Labour have debased Parliament;  undermined an independent Civil Service;  taken us to war on a false premise;  embellished that error by linking Iraq to the 9/11 attack on New York for which there is not a shred of evidence;  affronted civil liberties in an over-reaction to the terrorist threat;  and made a mockery of the criminal justice system.

So I’m glad that Gordon Brown wishes to make judgement an issue at the next election.  Indeed, further on in his Party Conference speech, he entreats us all to do the same:

Again, I quote:

“A Party that makes the wrong choices on the most critical decisions …. should not be given the chance to be in Government”. 

Alas – for our country – New Labour have been given three chances too many.   They came in when the coffers were full, and – true to form – like every Labour Government we’ve ever known – they will leave the coffers empty.

The poet Philip Larkin once wrote:  "Most things are not meant."  Labour did not mean to damage our national wellbeing, but they have.  They did not mean to damage our personal liberty, but they have.  They did not mean to undermine Parliament:  but they have.  Larkin was right:  "Most things are not meant", but his poem is even more prescient than you may think.  It is entitled:  "Going, Going".  Let us hope it is not long before this Labour Government is finally gone gone – and for good good.

It’s four years since I first addressed this conference.

Back then we were just a footnote in Welsh politics.

And just look at what we’ve done since then.

We’ve won council seats in Denbighshire, in Powys, in Pembrokeshire.

We’re running councils in Monmouthshire and the Vale of Glamorgan.

We’ve got over sixty more councillors...

…in cities, towns and villages ... and even in Labour’s heartland, and yes, even deep in the valleys, even in the Rhonda ... let’s not forget Joel James – he may be the only Conservative in the village but were proud of the progress we’ve made.

And four years ago, who would have thought that the Conservative Party could top the poll in Wales…

…beating Labour for the first time since the First World War, like we did in last year’s European elections?

Forget ‘how green was my valley’…

…it should be ‘how blue is my valley’...

…because the great dragon of Welsh Conservatism has awoken once more.

So I want to thank you for everything you’ve done.

And I especially want to thank Cheryl and Nick.

You have dedicated yourselves to our revival in Wales.

You have led our campaigns from the front.

And you should both feel incredibly proud of what you have achieved.

FIVE MORE YEARS

Yes, you’ve all been working hard.

But today I’m here to ask you to double your efforts.

That general election is just over sixty days away.

This isn’t an election that it would be quite nice to win.

It is an election it is absolutely essential we win because our country is in a complete mess and we have to turn it around.

Everyone knows five more years of Gordon Brown would be a disaster for this country.

Another five years of his spending, bloat, waste, debt and taxes.

Another five years of failing to get to grips with our big social problems.

Another five years in our politics of that big, top-down, bossy "I know best" sort of approach.

That’s why the choice at the next election is as simple as this:

Five more years of Gordon Brown’s tired government making things worse...

...or change with the Conservatives, who have the energy, leadership and values to get the country moving again.

Change in our economy, backing aspiration and opportunity and aspiration for all.

Change in our society, encouraging responsibility and backing those who do the right thing.

And change in our politics, giving people more power and control over their lives.

THE CHOICE IN WALES

And Wales needs that change as much as anywhere else in Britain.

In fact, I’d argue it needs it even more.

Do you know what Peter Hain said last month?

He said “compared with Rwanda...Wales is indeed still a wealthy country”.

Now, I’ve been to Rwanda and it’s a beautiful place.

And I’m proud that Conservative Party volunteers have been there to help out in social action projects.

But what does it say about this Government – and these Ministers – when they compare Wales to the 17th poorest country on the planet?

What does it say about this Government – and these Ministers – when the scale of their ambitions for Wales do not seem to go beyond a country that in the last twenty years has been ravaged by war and genocide?

What does it say about this Government – and these Ministers – when they think the Welsh should put up with this and just be thankful for what they get?

I tell you what it says.

It says this Government is arrogant, out-of-touch and has completely lost any right to govern.

So at this election, I want you to show your real passion and anger at how Labour have let down Wales.

Because there is a simple fact about what’s happened here in the past decade.

There’s not just a border separating Wales and the rest of the UK – there’s a prosperity gap.

And under Labour it’s got deeper and wider.

This is the poorest nation on these islands.

It has the highest rates of unemployment and the highest rates of child poverty.

There is only one word for what Labour have done in Wales this last decade: failure…

…and I don’t want you to let anyone forget it.

But more than that, I want you to tell the people of this great country that it doesn’t have to be like this.

Explain to them the real difference between Labour’s approach and the Conservative way.

Take the economy.

Labour think you get the economy moving by opening up the big government toolbox, pulling out the old tools like regional development agencies and new initiatives and trying to crank it to life from on high.

We understand that in the end it’s not government that will get the Welsh economy growing…

…it’s enterprise, it’s entrepreneurs, people with a great idea and the courage to start their own business.

That’s why we’ll cut corporation tax rates, abolish taxes on the first ten jobs created by new businesses and get people off welfare and into work.

And look at our different approach to our biggest social problems.

Labour say we’re wrong to talk about mending our broken society.

But when there are towns in Wales where one in five of the working age population live on benefits…

.... when one in ten are on some type of incapacity benefit ...

…when there are 140 violent crimes a day in this country…

…when about 500 people in Wales die each year from alcohol…

...when so many children are deprived the structure of stable family life...

…how can you pretend our society doesn’t need mending?

We need a government that’s going to face up to the facts, roll up their sleeves and get on with the job.

That’s exactly what we’ll do.

It’s our ambition to make Britain the most family-friendly country in Europe, by recognising marriage in the tax system, supporting couples in the benefits system and fighting back against crime.

And there is a massive difference in the way Labour and the Conservatives see our politics.

Labour see a system that is fundamentally sound but just needs a bit of tinkering to sort out the expenses scandal.

We see a top-down, bossy, power-hoarding, unaccountable relic that needs to be re-built from the bottom up.

Yes, we’ll sort out expenses – and we’ve been leading the way on that – but we need to go much further.

We will give everyone in Wales a sense that they are in control of their own destiny.

That’s why we’ll reduce the number of MPs, cut Whitehall bureaucracy by a third and make our politics more local, more transparent and more accountable.

That’s the difference between Labour and the Conservatives.

Inaction vs action.

Defeat vs optimism.

Despair for Wales vs hope for Wales.

There’s no iron law that says Labour must win in Wales.

So at this election, I want you to get out there and fight...

...fight for our party and fight for the change we want bring...

...above all, fight for Wales and fight for the future of Britain.

DEVOLUTION

But let me say this, whatever the outcome in Wales at the next election, we want a relationship of co-operation, not confrontation, between Westminster and Cardiff.

I will be a Prime Minister who acts on the voice of the Welsh people and will maintain strong relationships with the Assembly Government.

That’s why I’m happy to come to the Assembly each year and make myself available to answer questions on any subject.

It’s why I want Westminster Ministers appearing in front of Assembly committees – and Assembly Ministers appearing in front of Westminster committees.

And it’s why I will always support devolution and make sure it works for the benefit of everyone.

And if people in Wales want a referendum on full law-making powers that is a matter for them – so a Conservative Government will not block it.

But let’s resolve right here and right now that we will be the ones who stop the endless round of arguments that too often block progress in Wales – and start working together to build this country’s future.

THE BIG QUESTION IN POLITICS

But today I don’t just want to talk to you about how we can secure the future of Wales...

...I want to set out how we can secure the future of the United Kingdom itself.

The greatest task of all will be getting to grips with the monster budget deficit that Labour have created.

I think people know by now that the Conservatives are the ones with the grit and the guts to cut public spending to cut the deficit.

We’ve been upfront that there will have to be cuts, upfront about where they will come and upfront that they will have to start straightaway.

And people say ‘yes, we agree with the Conservatives when they say they want to cut the deficit.’

But when we also talk about our big ambitions to reform schools, shake-up welfare, help the poorest in society...

…they can sometimes think: “hang on a minute, how are you going to make this country better at the same time as dealing with these massive debts?”

They’re right to ask – because their question goes to the heart of the big argument in British politics today.

At the last few elections, according to Labour the big question in politics was: “who do you trust to spend some more of your money?"

That was Gordon Brown’s question. Well I’ve a message for you, Gordon: it's over. There isn't any money left. You've spent it all.

No, the question today is this: "how do we make things better without just spending money?"

This is the question that will define British politics for the years to come ...

... and today, I want to show you how it’s only the modern Conservative Party that has the answers.

BIG SPENDING FAILS

We’ve always known that you don’t improve things by just spending more money on them.

For years now at Prime Minister’s Questions I’ve faced Gordon Brown – and Tony Blair before him – droning on about resources going up, spending going up, investment going up....

...all to cheers from the Labour benches.

They were always less forthcoming about what that money had actually bought.

Social mobility. Stagnant.

Inequality. rising

Hundreds of thousands more living in severe poverty.

They thought it was all about money. It wasn’t. And no there is no money left there is nothing left to say.

Labour never understand that it’s not the numbers on the government cheque that count ...

...but the number of people who are lifted out of poverty; who get a chance in life; who get helped or cured or taught or given the opportunity to live their dream .... that’s what it’s about.

MORE FOR LESS

So after all this waste, all this failure and now all this debt, it falls to us, the modern Conservative Party, to restore hope in all those Labour have let down.

Showing government can be smarter, better, more imaginative and more competent.

Explaining how we can make things better without just spending money, how we can deliver more for less.

More for less is not some pie-in-the-sky political promise.

It’s something that businesses up and down the country do day-in, day-out.

They think: how can I deliver more for my customers while reducing my costs?

Imagine if they took the Labour approach, believing that every reduction in spending and costs was automatically a calamity for their customers.

Think of the advertising.

Good food costs more at Sainsburys.

Not “Every little helps” from Tesco, but “Every little Hurts”.

Businesses are constantly looking for creative ways to get more bang for their buck.

Reforming work practices. Buying wholesale when they can. Eradicating duplication. Innovating new delivery systems. Cutting out waste.

We need to bring that business sense and imagination to government.

Let me make clear: we are not offering a simple efficiency drive.

We’re not promising that the path to less spending and better public services is paved with just a few well-chosen cuts.

What we propose is something entirely different – something so bold and radical I would call it a whole new type of government.

Where it spends money, how it spends money, the way it spends money – that’s all got to change.

We’re going to shape government in a way it has never existed before so we use our instincts as Conservatives, our understanding of how people and communities really work and the latest technology to deliver more for less.

And this means doing three things in particular:

First, tackling the root causes of our social problems so that we can make millions of lives better while at the same time reducing the costs on the state.

Second, reforming our public services so we deliver both choice and efficiency.

And third, making government more local and more transparent so we cut waste as well as improve outcomes.

Let me take each in turn.

REDUCING THE DEMANDS ON THE STATE

First, reducing the long-term demands on the state.

In plain English that means asking the obvious question: why is public spending so high in the first place?

We spend so much on prisons because there is too much crime.

We spend so much on welfare because there are too many people not properly equipped for work.

We spend so much on health because our lifestyles are so unhealthy.

We need to rewind and ask: what are the causes of these things?

Do you know how much social breakdown costs our country each year?

Over £100 billion.

That’s one and a half thousand pounds for every person in our country.

That money gets spent on the family that’s broken, the man who’s never known what it is to work, the child who’s growing up in desperate circumstances, the communities who live in fear of violence and crime…

…and it passes through our education system, our healthcare system, our criminal justice system, our care system, our welfare system.

Now just imagine if we got to grips with our social problems – gave everyone the hope that comes with work; every child the chance that comes with love; every community the purpose that comes with security.

We would make life so much better for so many people.

And we’d also massively reduce the bills for government.

In other words, delivering more for less.

The question is: how do we do that?

And here, there’s a real difference between our approach and Labour’s approach.

Labour’s approach is just to treat the symptoms of our big social problems by spending more money.

For example, when it comes to poverty they think a tax credit here or a benefit change there will make all the difference.

But all this does is keep people stuck in poverty while at the same time leaving the state with an ongoing role.

Our approach is to tackle the root causes of poverty...

...like welfare dependency, addiction, debt, poor schooling and above all, family breakdown...

...so the state is no longer so dominant.

That’s why we have put such focus on school reform, welfare reform and strengthening families…

…giving people the chance to lift themselves up and out of poverty…

…breaking the cycles that have existed for generations…

…and being the ones who will make British poverty history.

PUBLIC SERVICE REFORM

The second way we can deliver more for less is through reform of our public services.

In 2001 Gordon Brown said "there is not going to be one penny more until we get the changes" we need to reform our public services.

But there’s been trillions of pennies since then – and where’s the reform?

It was blocked.

By guess who?

Gordon Brown.

He now poses as the champion of public service reform.

The truth is that he is to reforming public services what Nero was to fire safety ...

....or Tiger Woods to marital fidelity.

Speak to doctors, nurses, teachers, police officers and they’ll tell you what a nightmare it is working in Labour’s bureaucratic state machine.

They start out idealistic, they go into their training because they have a vocation, they have a love for what they do but that passion is being killed.

It’s death by a thousand tick boxes, targets, performance indicators, inspection regimes.

They’re left feeling demoralised, disrespected, disillusioned.

Most of all they’re pulling their hair out because they see all that money being wasted and they know that it could be spent so much better.

That’s why our reforms will all led by this common, clear Conservative principle:

Public services work better when they’re driven from the bottom-up, by people on the frontline.

So we’re going to take apart the centralised apparatus of command and control…

…and we’re going to give that power to people who work in our public services – even going as far as giving them the chance to take complete ownership of the organisation they work for in.

We’ll also smash open the state monopoly and open the door to charities and private companies who can play a part in the public sector.

And we’ll pay them all by the results they achieve.

To those who say ‘you can’t do that’, I say ‘of course we can – and of course we must.’

Our reforms will unleash a new culture of public sector innovation, giving higher morale, better results, lower costs and – you’ve got it – more for less.

CUTTING WASTE

All these changes will have a profound impact on how much government spends.

But the truth is it may take years to feel many of the benefits – and we can’t afford to wait that long.

We need to start getting more for less from day one.

So there is a third component to our plans – cutting out waste.

Labour’s spendaholic culture needs no introduction.

This is the Government that has elevated money-burning to an art form.

We’ve all got our own ridiculous Labour waste story.

Since 2003, this Government have paid out £10 million in tax credits – to people who are actually dead.

Then there’s an agency of the Department of Business, Innovation and Skills – they spent, and I promise this is true, £12,000 on branded golf balls.

Or how about the Department for International Development?

They spent £240,000 on Brazilian dancing in London.

Here in Wales you had the huge upheaval of 22 health boards, launched to a great fanfare....

...and scrapped just six years later.

And of course, no list of Labour waste can be complete without Ed Balls.

You don’t suffer his rule in Wales, but your taxes pay for it...so let me share this with you.

His Department for Children, Schools and Families reportedly spent £3 million on lavish new offices – which included a massage room and ‘contemplation suite’.

While we’re on that department, I found my own story this week.

Flicking through the Guardian I saw an advert they’d placed taking up a third of a page of prime-time space.

Sadly they weren’t advertising for a new Secretary of State.

They were asking people – and let me quote this accurately – ‘to put questions to the National Strategies about primary children’s writing.’

Leave aside the question of how you put a question to a strategy; just think of the bureaucratic carnival of waste behind an ad like this.

A group of civil servants emerge, presumably from the ‘contemplation suite’ with a novel idea.

They want to set up a taskforce for primary reading.

The taskforce books a weekend away to devise a strategy.

The strategy needs further thought so they hire consultants.

Then there’s the branding. The auditing. The monitoring.

The strategy needs to be legally reviewed, peer reviewed, benchmarked, mentored and mainstreamed…

…but not before there’s an allocation resources impact assessment.

Then they call the communications department to create a website, design an ad and get it placed.

I could have saved them all that bother and all that money.

Writing is about the imagination.

What you need is some great teachers, some good books, some pencils and some paper.

Is that really too difficult?

Now of course, the golf balls, the dancers, the lavish offices, the advertising campaigns – these are just the small examples of waste under Labour.

There have been monumental ones too.

The £4.5 billion spent – each year – on NHS bureaucracy.

That’s more than we spend on maternity and reproductive health.

The £3 billion lost in benefit fraud and error.

That’s more than we spend on winter fuel payments.

Every pound Labour waste is a pound that should be spent on keeping us safe, educating our children, improving our hospitals.

That’s why their spendaholic culture isn’t a diverting amusement or a mild irritation – it is a complete outrage and we will obliterate it.

I know there are those who will hear us talking about cut waste and say “you’ll be no different, you’ll have your pet projects, you’ll go native when you start living in the land of bureaucrats”.

So let me explain why we’ll be different.

We’ll be different because we are different.

First, our attitude is different.

Conservatives loathe waste.

Efficiency is in our DNA.

We never forget that fundamental fact about public money, which is that it’s public ... it’s yours, not ours.

It doesn’t undergo some magical transformation at the Treasury to become government money.

Those are the same pounds that were earned by you on the factory floor, on the hospital ward, in the office…

…and we will never forget that we have a moral duty not to spend your money but to save it where we can.

Second, our philosophy is different.

We don’t believe in top-down control; we believe in local control.

We don’t believe in taking power; we believe in giving it away.

And this will have a massive impact on our quest to cut out waste and deliver more for less.

It’s not just that a pound spent closer is a pound spent wiser – by those who really know the needs of a local community.

It’s also that a pound spent closer is a pound spent more efficiently – by those who have an interest in keeping costs down.

And third, our approach is different.

I don’t think people get quite how radical we propose to be.

The next Conservative government will be the first genuinely post-bureaucratic government in the world.

We will ditch all the wasteful, costly, old-world bureaucratic methods and instead use post-bureaucratic tools.

And when it comes to cutting waste, nothing is more important to this agenda than transparency.

We’re going to publish every item of government spending over £25,000 online.

And we’re going to publish every government contract worth over £25,000 in full – every clause, every performance measure, every penalty trigger – too.

Think what this simple act of throwing things open will mean.

It will mean an army of ‘armchair auditors’ will be crawling all over the books, scrutinising them and acting as a straitjacket on wasteful spending.

It will mean the Minister who lazily signs off a monster contract without checking if he could get it cheaper will be caught out and will have to answer for their actions.

It will mean that businesses and social enterprises can compete to offer better government services for less money.

I defy anyone to call our plans of changing the way government works timid.

They are bold – and they will make a massive difference.

And they are why we can look the British people in the eye and say a Tory pound will go further than a Labour pound…

…that good government costs less with the Conservatives.

CONCLUSION

We know what we’re fighting for.

When you’re out there on the doorstep, when you’re writing a leaflet at 2am, when you’re pounding the streets for hours I want you to keep two pictures of Wales in your mind.

First, an image of Wales under Labour.

Limping on with high unemployment, increasing child poverty and a government who puts this country in the same bracket as a developing nation.

Then alongside that, a vision of Wales with a Conservative government.

It would be a more confident Wales, with public spending under control and the deficit being cut.

A more prosperous Wales, with enterprise unleashed and jobs created.

And a more family-friendly Wales, with marriage recognised in the tax system and parents given more time with their children.

These two visions of Wales are so far apart, but they come together in the polling booth with the real choice that people have at this election.

It’s our job to keep explaining that choice for the next sixty days.

Yes, we have a fight on our hands, but believe me – the Wales that would emerge from our victory – a confident, prosperous, family friendly Wales – will be worth it.

So let’s get out there and win it.”

Now there are several areas of concern;

1. Since October the 24hr Minor Injury Service at Llandudno has been a nurse led service. There has been no doctors available after 11pm since then with the European Working Time Directive being blamed by the Health Trust (thank you Tony Blair and Gordon Brown).

2. Staff shortages have been blamed by the Trust for the service being closed at night for a week (as evidenced by the picture above). However, I am very confident is stating that the staff shortages are not at Llandudno but at Bangor. My understanding is that the Trust has decided to close Llandudno at night in order to allow nurses to be transferred to Bangor to help out with a shortage of staff at A&E in Ysbyty Gwynedd. The fact that the Trust is apparently paying for taxi transport back and forth can wait for comment at another time but clearly there is an issue here in terms of the priorities of the Trust. A town and surrounding area with a population of over 30,000 is losing a 24hr minor injury service in order to allow the A&E department at Bangor to be staffed by nurses from Llandudno.

3. As the picture shows the public are advised to make their way to Bangor or call 999. In view of the current stretched Ambulance cover in the area has there been any steps taken by Trust to ensure that ambulance cover for the Llandudno area has been increased to ensure that transporting any patient to Ysbyty Gwynedd does not leave Llandudno without any ambulance cover?

I will be asking these questions of the Betsi Cadwaladr Trust tomorrow morning - if you have any experience or information in relation to these changes then please feel free to contact me in confidence. My mobile number is 07767 493750.

Finally it should be noted that when the picture was taken (by a party member from Llandudno) the member in question was given two conflicting reports of the situation by the the unit manager;

1. Only four people use the Minor Injuries Unit per night between the hours in question (10am - 8pm). Staff were being utilised to deal with a short term shortage of trained nurses at Bangor

2. The Trust will save £500k per year by closing the unit during these hours (2 senior nurses + 1 doctor).

Now why would the figures for savings be so readily available if the closure was only for 1 week as stated in the Weekly News? A £500k saving must have been costed AND discussed I suspect. Secondly is the loss of the Doctor since October due to the working time directive or the beginning of the end of the 24hr Minor Injury Service at Llandudno?

The current developments in relation to the Minor Injury Unit demands a response from the Betsi Cadwaladr Trust.

Guto

However, there were several interesting issues that were dealt with by the officers who were kind enough to allow me to accompany them for the evening.

What particularly impressed me however was the great rapport that the officers had with the young people of Llandudno. Firm but friendly the officers treated all youngsters with respect and care and were rewarded with a response that was polite and a credit to the relationship developed by the new Community Policing arrangements.

I departed for home cold (it was -1c) but feeling very positive about the way in which proactive and community based policing can make a real difference. My thanks go to all the officers at Llandudno and also the youngsters we met who were all polite and well behaved.

Guto

[Show as slideshow]

What is truly awful about these figures is that they have occurred during a period when Wales has enjoyed unprecedented levels of EU funds to develop our economic performance.  I have argued consistently that EU funds have been badly managed in Wales by the Assembly - both under Labour and the current Labour / Plaid Cymru administration.  The facts seem to back my view.  If we have declined to significantly at a time of substantial EU intervention in our economy what will happen during a period of significantly reduced public spending in Wales?  

Wales needs a real change in attitude and behaviour in terms of wealth creation.  With the decline in GVA figures and our drop to the bottom of the pile in terms of new business start-ups since 2007 (we used to be top of this list in the late 1990's) it's clear that our Minister for the Economy, Ieuan Wyn Jones from Plaid Cymru, is not up to the task.  We need change and we need it urgently.

The following is a brief letter about this issue which I have sent to the Daily Post.  You read it here first!

Dear Sir,

Recent Gross Value Added (GVA) figures released by the Office for National Statistics made depressing reading with Wales the worst performing region or country of the UK by some distance.  On average Welsh GVA is less than 70% of the UK average with Wales now being overtaken by the North East of England and Northern Ireland. 

Of even more concern was the domination of the sub-regional worst performing areas by Welsh Local Authorities.  Four of the five worst performing local authority areas are here in Wales.  It’s appalling to see Conwy / Denbighshire join Anglesey on this list of the five worst performing areas with a GVA figure of £11,910 per head.  This figure is less than 60% of the UK average of £19,951.

It should also be noted that the Welsh position has declined significantly since 1996 during a period when huge sums of European funds were spent in West Wales and the Valleys (an area that includes Conwy and Denbighshire).  I have consistently argued that Assembly decisions in relation to EU structural funds have resulted in this EU intervention being squandered by both politicians and bureaucrats at the Welsh Assembly.  The facts seem to support my views.

The current situation should shame the Labour / Plaid Assembly Government.  Despite all the rhetoric from Labour and their Plaid Cymru partners’ real opportunities for people to prosper and develop in Wales are being lost whilst we continue to allow wasteful and ineffective government projects to dominate the Welsh Economy.  It’s time for a change.

Yours sincerely,

Guto Bebb

Aberconwy Conservatives      

· Mae gwariant ar addysg yng Nghymru yn £500 y pen yn llai nac yn Lloegr.

· Mae canlyniadau arholiadau yng Nghymru yn wannach na’r cyfartaledd yn Lloegr.

· Mae’r Cynulliad yn gofyn i bob ysgol sydd a 90 neu lai o ddisgyblion gyfiawnhau eu bodolaeth.

· Mae’r Gweinidog dros Iechyd yn y Cynulliad wedi cyfaddef nad yw’n ymwybodol o lle yr aeth £1bn o’r gyllideb Iechyd.

· Mae cynlluniau allweddol ar gyfer gwella ffyrdd yng Nghymru wedi eu gohirio.

Er gwaethaf yr uchod, ac fe allwn fod wedi parhau i ychwanegu at y rhestr, fe dreuliodd y Cynulliad ddoe yn dadlau am ‘semantics’ dyddiad pleidlais ar bwerau pellach i’r sefydliad.  Bu i Blaid Cymru fygwth gadael y llywodraeth nid oherwydd bod hanner y cynnydd mewn diweithdra Prydeinig wedi digwydd yng Nghymru'r mis diwethaf ond oherwydd bod Llafur Cymru yn hanner awgrymu na ddylid blaenoriaethu pleidlais ar bwerau pellach. 

Nid bywydau pobl Cymru sy’n poeni Plaid Cymru a Llafur yn y Cynulliad ond yn hytrach yr angen i gadw eu pleidiau eu hunain yn hapus yn achos y cwestiwn cyfansoddiadol.  Ni chafwyd gair gan neb am fywydau go iawn y boblogaeth syn dioddef o ddiffygion y llywodraeth ym Mae Caerdydd.  Yn gynyddol y mae Bae Caerdydd yn ymdebygu i ffrae deuluol gyda dim ystyriaeth o gyfrifoldeb tuag at neb y tu allan i’r dethol rhai yn yr elit gwleidyddol Cymreig.   

· Welsh unemployment is now higher than most regions in the UK.

· Education spending in Wales is £500 per head lower than in England.

· Welsh Educational achievements now lag behind the English average.

· The Welsh Assembly expects any school with less than 90 pupils to justify its existence.

· The Welsh Health Minister has acknowledged that around £1bn of spending cannot be accounted within the Health budget.

· Crucial plans to improve key Welsh roads have been cancelled.

Despite the above, and I could have extended my list significantly, the Assembly spent yesterday debating the semantic issue of the date for a referendum on further powers for the institution.  Plaid Cymru threatened to leave the coalition government not because half the increase in unemployment within the UK occurred in Wales last month but because Welsh Labour implied that the date of a referendum on further powers was not a priority. 

It would appear that Plaid and Labour politicians in Cardiff Bay are not concerned with the lives of people who live in Wales but rather the internal squabbles within their respective parties with respect to the constitutional question.  There were no discussions yesterday about the concerns of real people leading real lives in Wales who suffer due to the widespread and continued failures of the Welsh Assembly.  Increasingly the debating chamber in Cardiff Bay resembles a family argument with no consideration of the duty that they have towards those who live beyond the Welsh political elite.  

Guto

However, the usual suspects have immediately rounded on the Grayling promise with their usual claptrap about prison not working and the 'fact' that the UK imprison more people than any other 'civilised' country.  Note the word 'fact' and also the emotive use of the word 'civilised'.  I'll tackle the later first;

The use of the of the word civilised is deliberate.  It implies that civilised countries do not send people to prison and certainly not in large numbers.  Well in my view civilised countries do not allow the law to be broken with impunity and the criminal behaviour of so many to be tolerated at the expense of the law abiding.  Consider some figures (all from the Home Office - Research and Stats. Digest 4.)

0.1% of vandalism acts result in a prison sentence

0.6% of domestic burglaries result in a prison sentence

1.2% of car thefts result in a prison sentence

1.6% of assaults result in a prison sentence

0.7% of robbery cases result in a prison sentence

In total, around 0.3% of all crime results in a prison sentence.  I will re-state this point.  99.7% of cases DO NOT result in a prison sentence.  And yet the victim has suffered in 100% of cases.  Is this how a civilised society should behave?

Now to the 'fact'.  Do we send too many people to prison?  How many times have you heard the claim from Labour politicians or Guardian readers and the BBC that the UK sends more people to prison than any other country?  I'm sure that you have lost count.

However, this claim is based on nothing more than the number of people in prison.  It does not take any account of the number of people in prison compared to the number of recorded crimes.  And this is where things become interesting.  Which is the more 'civilised' country - the UK or Canada?  The UK or Switzerland?  The UK or France?  The UK or the Republic of Ireland?  The UK or Spain?

The media and left wing political class would have you believe that we are throwing many more people into prison than any of the countries I have listed above.  In actual numbers this would be correct.  But if we ask;

"How many people are sent to prison per 100,000 recorded crimes"

then all of the countries mentioned above and quite a few others including Portugal, the Czech Republic and Italy all send more people to prison in relation to the number of recorded crimes.  The UK on this basis is a very moderate user of prison as a response to crime. 

Our actual prison population is not high because we send too many people to prison.  It is high because we have a higher crime rate.  In many cases the UK has a track record of being far too lenient as shown by C. Murray in his paper 'Does Prison Work?'  In a comparison with 15 other western democracies the UK had the fifth most lenient sentences for rape, the most lenient in relation to assault and the fourth most lenient in relation to robbery.

Murray also shows a direct relationship between the number of prisoners held by the UK per 100,000 crimes in 1950 and the way in which this figure has fallen significantly since 1950.  From a high of almost 12,000 prisoners per 100,000 crimes in 1955 we have fallen to a level of slightly above 2,000 per 100,000 crimes.  In other words, if we had continued to send people to prison at the same rate as they did in the 1950's we would now have a prison population of around 450,000 not our current level of around 85,000. 

What Murray also shows is as the numbers in prison compared to the number of crimes has fallen significantly so has the number of crimes committed in the UK.  In other words it would appear that the facts show that as we become more lenient in terms of sentencing policy we encourage more crime. 

Is there a link between sending people to prison and recorded crime?  Yes is the simple answer.  An analysis of 6 countries between 1987 and 1995 found a very interesting relationship between the percentage change in your chance of going to prison with the percentage change in the number of recorded crimes.  The results were very interesting;

In England & Wales a 17% reduced risk of imprisonment led to a 31% increase in recorded crime

In the Republic of Ireland a 13% reduced risk of imprisonment led to a 20% increase in recorded crime

In France a 9% reduced risk of imprisonment led to a 16% increase in recorded crime

In Austria a 33% reduced risk of imprisonment led to a 24% increase in recorded crime

In the Netherlands a 9% higher risk of imprisonment led to a 8% increase in recorded crime

In Denmark a 4% higher  risk of imprisonment led to a 3% increase in recorded crime

Do I need to go on?  What is apparent is that as the risk of imprisonment falls the crime rate increases.  Does prison work as a deterrent?  It would appear so.  Is Chris Grayling right to promise more prison places?  On balance, yes.

Guto Bebb

So to give Vince and Nick a soundbite at Conference the Liberals are promising a policy which would need to be administered in Wales but would result in an actual increase in the budget of the Welsh Assembly of £0.  More paperwork, more costs and no benefits.  Good work lads!

Guto Bebb