Archive for the ‘Economy’ Category

The following is a speech delivered by Sir John Major in Stoke on Trent to a fundraising dinner for Conservative Target seats in that part of the world.  It is a demolition of the Labour spin machine and an excellent analysis of the reckless lack of judgement shown by Gordon Blair (well they were always a two man team were they not?) since 1997.

I challenge anyone who wants a better future for our country to read this speech and not feel an immediate need to get out there and knock on doors to ensure that this failed Labour administration is soundly beaten on the 6th of May or even the 3rd of June if Gordon Brown bottles the election once more.

Guto

Invited to come – delighted to accept. 

Within weeks there will be a General Election.  Bias in the system means we need a big lead in votes to get a lead in seats.  Nothing can be taken for granted:  it will be hard pounding to get a clear majority.   

When we lost – in 1997 – we had been in Government for 18 years:  it was too long, and many electors thought a fifth successive win would be bad for democracy. 

But it is ironic that in May 1997 the electorate turfed out the only Government in the last 50 years to leave Office with every single economic indicator improving, and elected a Party that has ended up bankrupting the Nation. 

I don’t believe most people yet realise how seriously we are in debt.  The man who promised to end “Boom and Bust” has led us into the biggest Bust for 70 years.  Under Gordon Brown, debt is a runaway train.  During the three hours we are here for dinner this evening, the Government will have borrowed another £60 million and it is we – the taxpayers – who will have to pay it back.  We will – literally – be repaying Labour’s debts for the rest of our lives.    

The shocking reality is that – if we win the next election – David Cameron will face a far worse problem in 2010 than Margaret Thatcher faced in 1979.  Let me be blunt:  whatever the result of the election, nearly everybody in the country is going to see the quality of their life reduced.

Nor – as he does – can Gordon Brown blame anyone but himself.  For him to do so – with no acknowledgement of his failure – beggers belief.

This is, of course, very New Labour.  Self-preservation first.  And the truth nowhere in sight.

Of course there has been an international dimension.  But most of our problems are home grown.  Even without the financial crisis:

-        We would still be in recession. 

-        Debt would still be at record levels. 

-        Unemployment would still be blighting too many lives.

-        Our banking system would still have been poorly regulated.

-        Our pension system would still have been wrecked. 

-        Our education system would still need reform. 

-        Our health system would still be unable to cope. 

-        Our civil liberties would still have been compromised.

-        And our prison system would still be overflowing with prisoners who need not be there, whilst others who should be there are given early release.    

All that is pure New Labour Britain:  this is their legacy.  Not the Americans.  Not the speculators.  Not even the Bankers.  None of it can be blamed on anyone else.  Only on Labour:  they have damaged the lifestyle of millions for years to come.

For nearly everyone, their security in life is:  job;  home;  pension.  After twelve years of Labour, none of them is secure.  Jobs lost.  Homes fallen in value.  And Gordon Brown killed final salary-related pensions with a tax, and damaged personal pensions with economic mis-management.  He is responsible for a generation of poor pensioners.  Labour cannot be trusted to put this right:  no-one trusts the mugger to set the broken bones.

At the moment, there is a dangerous gap between politicians and public.  There is a lack of trust:  only the unvarnished truth at all times will correct this.  And politicians seem to talk a different language to the public.  We need to put that right.  Because we are a serious political Party we talk a great deal about the economy, or reducing debt, or becoming competitive – all of which are important – but we should recognise also that to millions of people that is simply abstract economics. 

It is why politics often seems so remote.  We should focus more on the hopes and fears people have in their daily lives.  Most of these are family orientated:

• Can I get back into work?
• Can I get the right school for my child?
• How quickly can / will I get treatment for an illness?
• Can I pay the mortgage – or get on the housing ladder?
• How can I get help with care for an elderly or sick relative; or care for a child that is damaged and has special needs?
• Can I get away from this sink estate?

These are the worries that keep people awake at night, and dominate their lives.  We need to think on this personal level.

I recommend a note on the desk of every MP.  It should read:  how does what I am about to do affect the people of this country?  That should be their first thought:  not “Is this popular?”  Or “Will it win votes?”.

We must end the culture of promises that can’t be kept.  The British people aren’t stupid.  They know we can’t go on living in a financial never-never land.  So – tell them the truth.  Tell them what Labour has done.  And what we must now do. 

Two years from now –when the legacy of New Labour will be at its worst ­– people must understand that the blame rests with the policies of Blair and Brown – not the remedies of Cameron and Osborne.    

As ever, Labour will try and shift the blame.  We mustn’t let them get away with that.  The blame must rest squarely where it belongs.  So, let us tell the truth about them with the same vehemence with which they lie about us.

After great crises often come great changes.  Gordon Brown is right about one thing – the world has changed.  Necessity compels us to cut our cloth according to our means.  With wise policy, we can turn this crisis into worthwhile policy. 

What can be done?

We could simply top-slice budgets, with everyone bearing an equal share of the pain.  That is easy to do – but a mistake.

Or we could prioritise. 

We could re-shape Government, reduce it in size, be selective about what Government does, cut out whole functions, abolish unnecessary bodies, cut quangos, end the billions wasted on consultancies, on rebranding, and on fake schemes that serve only as political window-dressing. 

We must wean the nation off the belief that good Government means high public spending on everything.  We must spend on priorities, but compassionate policies do not necessarily mean big Government.  Smaller Government is necessary for financial reasons:  but it is also desirable.  We are over-governed.  Tories should not be defensive about dismantling the intrusive power of the State. 

We should never accept that big is better.  Big Government inhibits and confines;  it weakens ambition;  it cuts back on opportunity;  it undermines enterprise.  Often, it is anti-libertarian.  For many people – unfamiliar with Government and perhaps unsophisticated about it – it induces wariness, even fear, of The Man in Whitehall.  Yet – in a free society – The Man in Whitehall – civil servant and politician – is the servant of the nation, not its master.  So it must be again. 

And we must lift our eyes beyond domestic concerns, to see clearly our role in the wider world.  Wealth is moving to the East:  unless we re-create a competitive economy, that will continue.  The choice is simple:  we either reform, or we become less relevant, less well-off and a political and economic backwater.

David Cameron has referred often to the “broken society”, and we all know what he means by that.  We have to sustain the family unit.  Cut crime.  End the culture of dependency.  Improve social mobility.  Last year, fewer homes were built than at any time since the 1940s.  That is truly shocking:  it leaves people trapped – and often without work – in poor communities. 

We need to move from a celebrity-drenched culture to an opportunity society.  And, for everyone’s sake, we need to give talent and genius free rein and promote excellence in education by levelling up, not levelling down.  And we should dismantle the Nanny society in which adults are treated like children and children are treated like adults.

We need to move away from a Government obsessed by presentation and short-term popularity, to one obsessed by serious policies and long-term results.  It’s time to say goodbye to this sound-bite society.  We should say to the electorate – these are our objectives and this is how we will achieve them.  The Agenda is huge and, in our complex world, none of it will be easy to deliver.  But we Conservatives have done it before, and now need to do it again. 

At the next election, New Labour will have yet another Big Lie.  They always do.  It’s in their electioneering DNA. 

In 1997, they told electors we would abolish the State Pension.  They knew this was a lie. 

In 2001, they claimed to have “saved the British economy”.  Another lie:  we Tories created the most competitive economy in Europe.  Labour wrecked it. 

In 2005, they said we would slash public services.  Yet another lie.  And now – as we know from leaked documents – they are themselves planning cuts of nearly 10%.

When I hear such barefaced deceit by Labour, I sometimes wonder if they have any self-recognition at all?  Have they lost all touch with reality?  Or is the truth a constant stranger to their political soul? 

In 2010, when the failures of their own record in Government have been so woefully exposed, we can be sure they will resort to attacking our personalities and policies – indeed they are already doing so.  Because they cannot defend what they have done, they will attack what they say we will do.  It’s an old tactic. 

So be ready for - at least – three Big Lies.

First, the old chestnut that “ruthless, heartless Tories don’t care”:  they say we will cut schools and hospitals first.  Why on earth would we do that?  Our children go to those schools.  We use these hospitals.  It is we – not Labour – who will cut the size of the State – precisely to protect the most vital services. 

As for Tories not caring – look at Charities and Community Services up and down the UK:  who are they supported by in every town and village?  Conservative volunteers.

Second, that “all Tories are toffs – they don’t know anything about ordinary people”.  What inverted snobbery – and what a grotesque travesty of the truth.  How many of you here this evening live a carefree and leisurely life?  How many of you have not – at one time or another – faced problems with bills, mortgages and family crises?  Of course you have – we all have.  As a boy, I look back with such affection on my own privileged upbringing – full of all the luxuries life offered in a multi-occupied, multi-racial house in Brixton.  This class-based politics, setting citizen against citizen, is just beneath contempt. 

Third, Judgement.  Gordon Brown has already set this kite flying, in his Party Conference speech.

Let me quote:

“I say the test for a Government is the quality of its judgement”.

Quite so Gordon.  So let’s take a look at the quality of some of Labour’s judgements over the last 12 years:

-         Was it good judgement – or even legal – to go to war in Iraq?

-         Was it good judgement to move into Afghanistan with no clear military objective?

-         Was it good judgement to under-equip our troops – both in Iraq and Afghanistan?

-         Was it good judgement to go on such a reckless public spending spree that we have become one of the most indebted nations in the world?

-         Was it good judgement to sell our Gold reserves at the very bottom of the market?

-         Was it good judgement to force through 24 hour drinking, which has led to an increase in drunkenness and inner city crime?

-         Was it good judgement to pile so much paperwork on the police that they spend more time form-filling and less time protecting our neighbourhoods?

If judgement is the test – Labour have failed spectacularly.

Over twelve years, New Labour have debased Parliament;  undermined an independent Civil Service;  taken us to war on a false premise;  embellished that error by linking Iraq to the 9/11 attack on New York for which there is not a shred of evidence;  affronted civil liberties in an over-reaction to the terrorist threat;  and made a mockery of the criminal justice system.

So I’m glad that Gordon Brown wishes to make judgement an issue at the next election.  Indeed, further on in his Party Conference speech, he entreats us all to do the same:

Again, I quote:

“A Party that makes the wrong choices on the most critical decisions …. should not be given the chance to be in Government”. 

Alas – for our country – New Labour have been given three chances too many.   They came in when the coffers were full, and – true to form – like every Labour Government we’ve ever known – they will leave the coffers empty.

The poet Philip Larkin once wrote:  "Most things are not meant."  Labour did not mean to damage our national wellbeing, but they have.  They did not mean to damage our personal liberty, but they have.  They did not mean to undermine Parliament:  but they have.  Larkin was right:  "Most things are not meant", but his poem is even more prescient than you may think.  It is entitled:  "Going, Going".  Let us hope it is not long before this Labour Government is finally gone gone – and for good good.

The North-South air link between Cardiff and Anglesey was grounded today.  Commonly known as Ieuan Air the service has been subsidised to the tune of £800k per year by the department of Economy and Transport under the leadership of Deputy First Minister and leader of Plaid Cymru, Ieuan Wyn Jones AM.

His ability to read Business Plans appears to be less than robust.  For many families in the Aberconwy Constituency and the community of Dolgarrog this announcement today is another slap in the face from this failed Plaid / Labour administration.  Ieuan Wyn Jones refused an application for financial support from the management at Dolgarrog due to ‘weaknesses in the Business Plan’ and yet the same Ieuan Wyn Jones defended the funding of this so called ‘vital’ service when he came to Llanrwst for an edition of 'Pawb a'i Farn'.  With a subsidy demand of £800k per year I wonder how robust the Business Plan would have been?

Meanwhile the Dolgarrog site stands empty with a tourism village now one of the preferred options for re-development.  The Plaid Cymru MP for Dolgarrog, Elfyn Llwyd, remains consistently silent on the issue whilst Gareth Jones, the Plaid Cymru AM for the area has completely failed to back-up his promises that there would be jobs created at the site.  Plaid and Labour, the marriage of convenience down in Cardiff Bay, have completely failed the residents of Dolgarrog and the economy of the Conwy Valley.       

Guto

Following the Tudno FM debate I drove to the Bangor BBC studios to do a budget response on RADIO CYMRU.  The debate was between representatives of all four parties but the real debate was between myself and the former Welsh First Minister – Rhodri Morgan.

The discussion (in Welsh) can be found here starting at around 15minutes into the podcast.  However, the fireworks start at around 25minutes!  In simple terms Rhodri Morgan attempted to mislead the Welsh public about unemployment in this recession (9.7% in Wales) claiming that the figures were low in historical terms.  I countered that this was because the unemployment rate no longer reflected the fact that 25% or one in four of all Welsh adults between 16 and 65 are not economically active.  I pressed him time and time again on this issue but he failed even once to acknowledge the truth of the argument.

Rhodri Morgan is leaving politics next year.  Not before time if this hapless and dishonest performance is an indication of the current contribution he has to offer our politics.

Guto

One of the lies being peddled by the Labour Party and their friends in Plaid Cymru, the Liberal Democrats and the Unions is that there is no desperate need for reducing state spending.  The argument they make is that the massive deficit being created this year and the huge surge in our National Debt is simply a direct result of the ‘Global Financial Meltdown’ as Lord Madelson would claim (with support from Plaid Cymru and Vince Cable).

This is a lie.  Long before the collapse of a single bank Gordon Brown was running huge deficits in the midst of his alleged good management of the economy.  The figures below give a real insight to the extent of Labour waste which has been supported AND CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTED by Plaid Cymru and the Liberals.  The figure for each year represents the amount by which Government expenditure exceeded income in each of the past eight fiscal years;

2002/03 - £22 Billion
2003/04 - £35 Billion
2004/05 - £40 Billion
2005/06 - £41 Billion
2006/07 - £34 Billion
2007/08 - £36 Billion
2008/09 - £71 Billion
2009/10 - £178 Billion predicted but expected to be less at around £170 Billion

2010/11 - £170 Billion is the forecast

The truth is, as the Conservative Party keeps stating, we have been living beyond our means for almost a decade.  The waste and excesses of the public sector spending departments has been the driver for the collapse of the UK public finances.  This is now an urgent issue that needs to be recognised and acted upon.  In Aberconwy three of the four main political parties refuse to acknowledge the need for change.  That is a simple fact that should worry every elector in this constituency.

Guto

Serious allegations have been brought to my attention about the future staffing levels of the new Welsh Assembly Office Block at Llandudno Junction.  Claims of hundreds of jobs being created at the site have been made by Labour and Plaid politicians on a regular basis.  This is a typical example as reported in the Daily Post.

The truth has always been significantly different with many of the so called jobs created at Llandudno Junction being no more than relocation of staff from other North Wales offices at Caernarfon, St. Asaph, Mold and Wrexham.  David Jones MP has already highlighted the fact that all relocated workers will be given £2,500 each for moving to the new offices although for many the new location will save them and time and money every day!  If 75% of the promised jobs at Llandudno Junction were actually re-locations the cost of this payment to staff would be around £1.1m.  Says a lot about the priorities of the Welsh Assembly.  They impose cuts on the budgets of Special needs schools but are happy to spend £1.1m of our money to re-locate staff many of which will SAVE money as a result of the move.

However, the above issues, whilst serious, pale into insignificance compared to the allegations forwarded to me about the number of new positions that will be created at the offices in the Junction.  Despite all the promises, despite the statements of our current MP and AM (one from Labour and one from Plaid) my understanding is that the number of new positions at Llandudno Junction will be, wait for it, 1!  Yes, one.

I will be writing to the Deputy First Minister tomorrow morning to ask for clarification of this issue but I suspect that I have the truth on this heartless lie which has been peddled to local people by both Plaid Cymru and Labour and their devious partnership government in Cardiff Bay.

Day after day when I canvass in the Aberconwy constituency people tell me that Cardiff has ignored North Wales ever since the Assembly came into being.  The development of the offices at Llandudno Junction was supposed to be an example of Assembly Jobs coming to North Wales.  Not true from what I understand.

I will keep you informed of the response from the deputy first minister Ieuan Wyn Jones.  As for Gareth Jones AM – he promised to save Dolgarrog and failed.  He confirmed in several meetings that jobs would come to Llandudno Junction through this investment.  If my facts are correct he should consider his position.

Guto

PS - This is the letter.  It vwas sent in Welsh but the main questions being asked are as per the above posting.

22 Mawrth 2010

Ieuan Wyn Jones AC

Dirprwy Brif Weinidog Cymru

Llywodraeth Cynulliad Cymru

Y Senedd

Bae Caerdydd

CF99 1NA

Annwyl Mr Jones,

Par: Swyddfeydd Llywodraeth y Cynulliad Cyffordd Llandudno – Llythyr Agored

Fel y gwyddoch y mae’r addewidion cyhoeddus a wnaethpwyd gan swyddogion a gwleidyddion o fewn y Llywodraeth y Cynulliad wedi addo’n gyson y byddai’r swyddfeydd newydd yng Nghyffordd Llandudno yn arwain at greu rhwng 580 a 600 o swyddi.  Er gwaethaf y modd y cyflwynwyd y wybodaeth yma yr oedd yna lawer ohonom ar lawr gwlad o’r farn y byddai’r cyfanswm o swyddi newydd yn llawer llai - oddeutu 100 i 120 efallai.

Serch hynny, sioc enbyd oedd derbyn gwybodaeth y dydd o’r blaen sy’n awgrymu na fydd yna fwy nag un swydd o’r newydd yn dod i fodolaeth o ganlyniad i agor y swyddfeydd newydd yn y gogledd.  Yn yr un modd y mae’r wybodaeth sydd gennyf hefyd yn awgrymu’n gryf na fydd yna lawer mwy na 400 o staff yn y swyddfeydd hyn o gymharu gyda’r 580 - 600 addawyd.

Yn wyneb y datganiadau cyson sydd wedi cael eu gwneud gan eich Llywodraeth yn nodi cyfraniad sylweddol y datblygiad hwn i adfywio Cyffordd Llandudno a gogledd Cymru mater o bwys bellach yw derbyn cadarnhad penodol o’r hyn sy’n debygol o ddigwydd.

Gofynnaf i chwi felly, a hynny’n fuan iawn, i gadarnhau'r canlynol;

Sawl swydd newydd fydd yn dod i fodolaeth gydag agor swyddfeydd newydd y Cynulliad yng Nghyffordd Llandudno?

Beth fydd y niferoedd staff disgwyliedig yn y Swyddfeydd hyn?  A fydd y cyfanswm yn llai na’r 580-600 addawyd gan eich llywodraeth ac os felly pam?

Y mae’r datblygiad hwn wedi ei weld yn lleol fel cyfle gwych i adfywio Cyffordd Llandudno.  Y mae hynny i raddau helaeth yn adlewyrchu'r addewidion a wnaethpwyd gan eich Llywodraeth.  Y mae’n fater allweddol felly ein bod yn cael gwybodaeth gywir am fwriadau eich Llywodraeth a hynny ar fyrder.

Yn gywir,

Guto Bebb

Ymgeisydd Seneddol Plaid Geidwadol Cymru, Etholaeth Aberconwy

This is a press release which we are sending out following requests from myself (thank you for placing the questions Nick) for information in relation to the costs incurred by WAG in order to have full page adverts placed in papers such as the Daily Post, Western Mail and the Weekly News.

In total £85,000 of your money 9earmarked for business support) was spent by Plaid (sorry, WAG) on an advert which was little more than a hymn of praise for the Minister for the Economy and Transport, Ieuan Wyn Jones.  I have worked with WAG under several ministers for the economy.  I have no recollection of any minister fronting a campaign such as this with his picture and an advertorial style of advert (made to look like a story in the paper).

To have these adverts appearing six weeks before an election is an abuse of power by Ieuan Wyn Jones.  Plaid Cymru have a track record of using taxpayers funds to advertise themselves (they did the same before the 2007 Assembly Election but had to re-pay the money on that occasion) so we should not be surprised but it makes me very angry to see money earmarked to support businesses in a recession used to promote a personality cult around the Plaid leader.

In view of the cash that they have received from this advert I wonder whether Trinity Mirror, publishers of the Weekly News, Daily Post and Western Mail to name only three publications that received this money, will be willing to run a story.  This is the press release;

Local business people are angered by the recent spate of full page colour adverts that have appeared in all of the major Welsh newspapers headed up by Plaid Cymru leader, Ieuan Wyn Jones.
Many businesses have contacted the Aberconwy Conservatives to complain at what they see as a ludicrous waste of money.  With Wales in the midst of a deep recession there is a question as to why self-promoting adverts were prioritised by the Welsh Assembly Government above real support for local businesses who are struggling to pay high levels of Business Rates levied by the Welsh Assembly Government.

Conservative Group Leader on Conwy County Borough Council and local business woman
Janet Finch-Saunders said,

 “I was shocked when I opened the local paper to see the Plaid Cymru leader using such an expensive and extravagant way of boasting the merits of WAG business support services".

"So many businesses are really suffering here in Conwy yet these schemes have not benefitted or helped most local businesses".

"I also believe that these costly adverts featuring Ieuan Wyn Jones prominently have been deliberately timed in anticipation of the General Election.  It would appear that Ieuan Wyn Jones is happy to use taxpayer funds to engage in personality politics on behalf of himself and his party only weeks before an anticipated election"

Aberconwy Parliamentary Candidate, Guto Bebb, who raised these issues with the Conservative leader at the National Assembly of Wales said;

“In the first six months of this financial year Ieuan Wyn Jones, leader of Plaid Cymru and Minister for the Economy at the Welsh Assembly managed to spend only 20% of the business support budget of his department.  However, when it came to the opportunity to advertise and promote himself two months before an election he was able to find more than £85,000 of taxpayers funds immediately.  I know that Mr Jones and Plaid Cymru have their priorities all wrong.  After all, this is the man who refused to support a Business Plan which would have saved 120 jobs at Dolgarrog Aluminium for an investment of £1m but who was perfectly happy to find £800,000 per year to fund an air link from his constituency down to Cardiff.  Using £85,000 of taxpayers’ money, which should have been used for business support, to promote himself six weeks before an election is nothing short of shameful”

Ends.

Notes to Editors;
Responses to a series of questions from Mr Nick Bourne revealed that adverts were placed in 20 newspapers at a total cost of £85,168.03.  This included what the Deputy First Minister calls “creative fees” for the campaign as well as production and advertising costs.  Last month Welsh Conservatives accused the Assembly Government of a “significant under-spend” in support for businesses during the recession.  Information obtained by the party revealed that less than a quarter of funding from the Labour-Plaid administration’s business support budget was spent in the first half of the financial year and with the economy still in recession.

Guto

What a great conference!

More often than not I find Party conferences to be less than inspiring but last weekend in Llandudno I enjoyed almost every minute of what developed into an enthusiastic rally of the delegates and activists prior to what will be a historic General Election.  The issues at stake are huge with the very future of the country dependant on ensuring that we put a stop to the past thirteen years of Labour Party mistakes and blunders.  We must put a stop to thirteen years of hostility towards groups such as small businesses, rural communities and anybody who attempts to do the right thing such as saving for retirement or taking education seriously.

We had excellent speeches from David Cameron, Phillip Hammond and the Welsh team of Cheryl Gillian and Nick Bourne.  We had a well argued and considerate analysis of how a Conservative Government would make devolution work from David Jones and a speech of integrity and vision from Stephen Crabb, MP for Preseli-Pembrokeshire.

All in all it was a thoroughly enjoyable and often thought provoking weekend.  What really came through however was the passion of our activists and the integrity of our candidates.  For the sake of Wales and the UK we need to get out there and take the fight to Labour and their little helpers in Plaid Cymru. 

The team in Aberconwy are up for the fight.  Join us, you will be very welcome.

Guto

One of his best. Our next Prime Minister in my view;
It’s great to be back in Wales.

It’s four years since I first addressed this conference.

Back then we were just a footnote in Welsh politics.

And just look at what we’ve done since then.

We’ve won council seats in Denbighshire, in Powys, in Pembrokeshire.

We’re running councils in Monmouthshire and the Vale of Glamorgan.

We’ve got over sixty more councillors...

…in cities, towns and villages ... and even in Labour’s heartland, and yes, even deep in the valleys, even in the Rhonda ... let’s not forget Joel James – he may be the only Conservative in the village but were proud of the progress we’ve made.

And four years ago, who would have thought that the Conservative Party could top the poll in Wales…

…beating Labour for the first time since the First World War, like we did in last year’s European elections?

Forget ‘how green was my valley’…

…it should be ‘how blue is my valley’...

…because the great dragon of Welsh Conservatism has awoken once more.

So I want to thank you for everything you’ve done.

And I especially want to thank Cheryl and Nick.

You have dedicated yourselves to our revival in Wales.

You have led our campaigns from the front.

And you should both feel incredibly proud of what you have achieved.

FIVE MORE YEARS

Yes, you’ve all been working hard.

But today I’m here to ask you to double your efforts.

That general election is just over sixty days away.

This isn’t an election that it would be quite nice to win.

It is an election it is absolutely essential we win because our country is in a complete mess and we have to turn it around.

Everyone knows five more years of Gordon Brown would be a disaster for this country.

Another five years of his spending, bloat, waste, debt and taxes.

Another five years of failing to get to grips with our big social problems.

Another five years in our politics of that big, top-down, bossy "I know best" sort of approach.

That’s why the choice at the next election is as simple as this:

Five more years of Gordon Brown’s tired government making things worse...

...or change with the Conservatives, who have the energy, leadership and values to get the country moving again.

Change in our economy, backing aspiration and opportunity and aspiration for all.

Change in our society, encouraging responsibility and backing those who do the right thing.

And change in our politics, giving people more power and control over their lives.

THE CHOICE IN WALES

And Wales needs that change as much as anywhere else in Britain.

In fact, I’d argue it needs it even more.

Do you know what Peter Hain said last month?

He said “compared with Rwanda...Wales is indeed still a wealthy country”.

Now, I’ve been to Rwanda and it’s a beautiful place.

And I’m proud that Conservative Party volunteers have been there to help out in social action projects.

But what does it say about this Government – and these Ministers – when they compare Wales to the 17th poorest country on the planet?

What does it say about this Government – and these Ministers – when the scale of their ambitions for Wales do not seem to go beyond a country that in the last twenty years has been ravaged by war and genocide?

What does it say about this Government – and these Ministers – when they think the Welsh should put up with this and just be thankful for what they get?

I tell you what it says.

It says this Government is arrogant, out-of-touch and has completely lost any right to govern.

So at this election, I want you to show your real passion and anger at how Labour have let down Wales.

Because there is a simple fact about what’s happened here in the past decade.

There’s not just a border separating Wales and the rest of the UK – there’s a prosperity gap.

And under Labour it’s got deeper and wider.

This is the poorest nation on these islands.

It has the highest rates of unemployment and the highest rates of child poverty.

There is only one word for what Labour have done in Wales this last decade: failure…

…and I don’t want you to let anyone forget it.

But more than that, I want you to tell the people of this great country that it doesn’t have to be like this.

Explain to them the real difference between Labour’s approach and the Conservative way.

Take the economy.

Labour think you get the economy moving by opening up the big government toolbox, pulling out the old tools like regional development agencies and new initiatives and trying to crank it to life from on high.

We understand that in the end it’s not government that will get the Welsh economy growing…

…it’s enterprise, it’s entrepreneurs, people with a great idea and the courage to start their own business.

That’s why we’ll cut corporation tax rates, abolish taxes on the first ten jobs created by new businesses and get people off welfare and into work.

And look at our different approach to our biggest social problems.

Labour say we’re wrong to talk about mending our broken society.

But when there are towns in Wales where one in five of the working age population live on benefits…

.... when one in ten are on some type of incapacity benefit ...

…when there are 140 violent crimes a day in this country…

…when about 500 people in Wales die each year from alcohol…

...when so many children are deprived the structure of stable family life...

…how can you pretend our society doesn’t need mending?

We need a government that’s going to face up to the facts, roll up their sleeves and get on with the job.

That’s exactly what we’ll do.

It’s our ambition to make Britain the most family-friendly country in Europe, by recognising marriage in the tax system, supporting couples in the benefits system and fighting back against crime.

And there is a massive difference in the way Labour and the Conservatives see our politics.

Labour see a system that is fundamentally sound but just needs a bit of tinkering to sort out the expenses scandal.

We see a top-down, bossy, power-hoarding, unaccountable relic that needs to be re-built from the bottom up.

Yes, we’ll sort out expenses – and we’ve been leading the way on that – but we need to go much further.

We will give everyone in Wales a sense that they are in control of their own destiny.

That’s why we’ll reduce the number of MPs, cut Whitehall bureaucracy by a third and make our politics more local, more transparent and more accountable.

That’s the difference between Labour and the Conservatives.

Inaction vs action.

Defeat vs optimism.

Despair for Wales vs hope for Wales.

There’s no iron law that says Labour must win in Wales.

So at this election, I want you to get out there and fight...

...fight for our party and fight for the change we want bring...

...above all, fight for Wales and fight for the future of Britain.

DEVOLUTION

But let me say this, whatever the outcome in Wales at the next election, we want a relationship of co-operation, not confrontation, between Westminster and Cardiff.

I will be a Prime Minister who acts on the voice of the Welsh people and will maintain strong relationships with the Assembly Government.

That’s why I’m happy to come to the Assembly each year and make myself available to answer questions on any subject.

It’s why I want Westminster Ministers appearing in front of Assembly committees – and Assembly Ministers appearing in front of Westminster committees.

And it’s why I will always support devolution and make sure it works for the benefit of everyone.

And if people in Wales want a referendum on full law-making powers that is a matter for them – so a Conservative Government will not block it.

But let’s resolve right here and right now that we will be the ones who stop the endless round of arguments that too often block progress in Wales – and start working together to build this country’s future.

THE BIG QUESTION IN POLITICS

But today I don’t just want to talk to you about how we can secure the future of Wales...

...I want to set out how we can secure the future of the United Kingdom itself.

The greatest task of all will be getting to grips with the monster budget deficit that Labour have created.

I think people know by now that the Conservatives are the ones with the grit and the guts to cut public spending to cut the deficit.

We’ve been upfront that there will have to be cuts, upfront about where they will come and upfront that they will have to start straightaway.

And people say ‘yes, we agree with the Conservatives when they say they want to cut the deficit.’

But when we also talk about our big ambitions to reform schools, shake-up welfare, help the poorest in society...

…they can sometimes think: “hang on a minute, how are you going to make this country better at the same time as dealing with these massive debts?”

They’re right to ask – because their question goes to the heart of the big argument in British politics today.

At the last few elections, according to Labour the big question in politics was: “who do you trust to spend some more of your money?"

That was Gordon Brown’s question. Well I’ve a message for you, Gordon: it's over. There isn't any money left. You've spent it all.

No, the question today is this: "how do we make things better without just spending money?"

This is the question that will define British politics for the years to come ...

... and today, I want to show you how it’s only the modern Conservative Party that has the answers.

BIG SPENDING FAILS

We’ve always known that you don’t improve things by just spending more money on them.

For years now at Prime Minister’s Questions I’ve faced Gordon Brown – and Tony Blair before him – droning on about resources going up, spending going up, investment going up....

...all to cheers from the Labour benches.

They were always less forthcoming about what that money had actually bought.

Social mobility. Stagnant.

Inequality. rising

Hundreds of thousands more living in severe poverty.

They thought it was all about money. It wasn’t. And no there is no money left there is nothing left to say.

Labour never understand that it’s not the numbers on the government cheque that count ...

...but the number of people who are lifted out of poverty; who get a chance in life; who get helped or cured or taught or given the opportunity to live their dream .... that’s what it’s about.

MORE FOR LESS

So after all this waste, all this failure and now all this debt, it falls to us, the modern Conservative Party, to restore hope in all those Labour have let down.

Showing government can be smarter, better, more imaginative and more competent.

Explaining how we can make things better without just spending money, how we can deliver more for less.

More for less is not some pie-in-the-sky political promise.

It’s something that businesses up and down the country do day-in, day-out.

They think: how can I deliver more for my customers while reducing my costs?

Imagine if they took the Labour approach, believing that every reduction in spending and costs was automatically a calamity for their customers.

Think of the advertising.

Good food costs more at Sainsburys.

Not “Every little helps” from Tesco, but “Every little Hurts”.

Businesses are constantly looking for creative ways to get more bang for their buck.

Reforming work practices. Buying wholesale when they can. Eradicating duplication. Innovating new delivery systems. Cutting out waste.

We need to bring that business sense and imagination to government.

Let me make clear: we are not offering a simple efficiency drive.

We’re not promising that the path to less spending and better public services is paved with just a few well-chosen cuts.

What we propose is something entirely different – something so bold and radical I would call it a whole new type of government.

Where it spends money, how it spends money, the way it spends money – that’s all got to change.

We’re going to shape government in a way it has never existed before so we use our instincts as Conservatives, our understanding of how people and communities really work and the latest technology to deliver more for less.

And this means doing three things in particular:

First, tackling the root causes of our social problems so that we can make millions of lives better while at the same time reducing the costs on the state.

Second, reforming our public services so we deliver both choice and efficiency.

And third, making government more local and more transparent so we cut waste as well as improve outcomes.

Let me take each in turn.

REDUCING THE DEMANDS ON THE STATE

First, reducing the long-term demands on the state.

In plain English that means asking the obvious question: why is public spending so high in the first place?

We spend so much on prisons because there is too much crime.

We spend so much on welfare because there are too many people not properly equipped for work.

We spend so much on health because our lifestyles are so unhealthy.

We need to rewind and ask: what are the causes of these things?

Do you know how much social breakdown costs our country each year?

Over £100 billion.

That’s one and a half thousand pounds for every person in our country.

That money gets spent on the family that’s broken, the man who’s never known what it is to work, the child who’s growing up in desperate circumstances, the communities who live in fear of violence and crime…

…and it passes through our education system, our healthcare system, our criminal justice system, our care system, our welfare system.

Now just imagine if we got to grips with our social problems – gave everyone the hope that comes with work; every child the chance that comes with love; every community the purpose that comes with security.

We would make life so much better for so many people.

And we’d also massively reduce the bills for government.

In other words, delivering more for less.

The question is: how do we do that?

And here, there’s a real difference between our approach and Labour’s approach.

Labour’s approach is just to treat the symptoms of our big social problems by spending more money.

For example, when it comes to poverty they think a tax credit here or a benefit change there will make all the difference.

But all this does is keep people stuck in poverty while at the same time leaving the state with an ongoing role.

Our approach is to tackle the root causes of poverty...

...like welfare dependency, addiction, debt, poor schooling and above all, family breakdown...

...so the state is no longer so dominant.

That’s why we have put such focus on school reform, welfare reform and strengthening families…

…giving people the chance to lift themselves up and out of poverty…

…breaking the cycles that have existed for generations…

…and being the ones who will make British poverty history.

PUBLIC SERVICE REFORM

The second way we can deliver more for less is through reform of our public services.

In 2001 Gordon Brown said "there is not going to be one penny more until we get the changes" we need to reform our public services.

But there’s been trillions of pennies since then – and where’s the reform?

It was blocked.

By guess who?

Gordon Brown.

He now poses as the champion of public service reform.

The truth is that he is to reforming public services what Nero was to fire safety ...

....or Tiger Woods to marital fidelity.

Speak to doctors, nurses, teachers, police officers and they’ll tell you what a nightmare it is working in Labour’s bureaucratic state machine.

They start out idealistic, they go into their training because they have a vocation, they have a love for what they do but that passion is being killed.

It’s death by a thousand tick boxes, targets, performance indicators, inspection regimes.

They’re left feeling demoralised, disrespected, disillusioned.

Most of all they’re pulling their hair out because they see all that money being wasted and they know that it could be spent so much better.

That’s why our reforms will all led by this common, clear Conservative principle:

Public services work better when they’re driven from the bottom-up, by people on the frontline.

So we’re going to take apart the centralised apparatus of command and control…

…and we’re going to give that power to people who work in our public services – even going as far as giving them the chance to take complete ownership of the organisation they work for in.

We’ll also smash open the state monopoly and open the door to charities and private companies who can play a part in the public sector.

And we’ll pay them all by the results they achieve.

To those who say ‘you can’t do that’, I say ‘of course we can – and of course we must.’

Our reforms will unleash a new culture of public sector innovation, giving higher morale, better results, lower costs and – you’ve got it – more for less.

CUTTING WASTE

All these changes will have a profound impact on how much government spends.

But the truth is it may take years to feel many of the benefits – and we can’t afford to wait that long.

We need to start getting more for less from day one.

So there is a third component to our plans – cutting out waste.

Labour’s spendaholic culture needs no introduction.

This is the Government that has elevated money-burning to an art form.

We’ve all got our own ridiculous Labour waste story.

Since 2003, this Government have paid out £10 million in tax credits – to people who are actually dead.

Then there’s an agency of the Department of Business, Innovation and Skills – they spent, and I promise this is true, £12,000 on branded golf balls.

Or how about the Department for International Development?

They spent £240,000 on Brazilian dancing in London.

Here in Wales you had the huge upheaval of 22 health boards, launched to a great fanfare....

...and scrapped just six years later.

And of course, no list of Labour waste can be complete without Ed Balls.

You don’t suffer his rule in Wales, but your taxes pay for it...so let me share this with you.

His Department for Children, Schools and Families reportedly spent £3 million on lavish new offices – which included a massage room and ‘contemplation suite’.

While we’re on that department, I found my own story this week.

Flicking through the Guardian I saw an advert they’d placed taking up a third of a page of prime-time space.

Sadly they weren’t advertising for a new Secretary of State.

They were asking people – and let me quote this accurately – ‘to put questions to the National Strategies about primary children’s writing.’

Leave aside the question of how you put a question to a strategy; just think of the bureaucratic carnival of waste behind an ad like this.

A group of civil servants emerge, presumably from the ‘contemplation suite’ with a novel idea.

They want to set up a taskforce for primary reading.

The taskforce books a weekend away to devise a strategy.

The strategy needs further thought so they hire consultants.

Then there’s the branding. The auditing. The monitoring.

The strategy needs to be legally reviewed, peer reviewed, benchmarked, mentored and mainstreamed…

…but not before there’s an allocation resources impact assessment.

Then they call the communications department to create a website, design an ad and get it placed.

I could have saved them all that bother and all that money.

Writing is about the imagination.

What you need is some great teachers, some good books, some pencils and some paper.

Is that really too difficult?

Now of course, the golf balls, the dancers, the lavish offices, the advertising campaigns – these are just the small examples of waste under Labour.

There have been monumental ones too.

The £4.5 billion spent – each year – on NHS bureaucracy.

That’s more than we spend on maternity and reproductive health.

The £3 billion lost in benefit fraud and error.

That’s more than we spend on winter fuel payments.

Every pound Labour waste is a pound that should be spent on keeping us safe, educating our children, improving our hospitals.

That’s why their spendaholic culture isn’t a diverting amusement or a mild irritation – it is a complete outrage and we will obliterate it.

I know there are those who will hear us talking about cut waste and say “you’ll be no different, you’ll have your pet projects, you’ll go native when you start living in the land of bureaucrats”.

So let me explain why we’ll be different.

We’ll be different because we are different.

First, our attitude is different.

Conservatives loathe waste.

Efficiency is in our DNA.

We never forget that fundamental fact about public money, which is that it’s public ... it’s yours, not ours.

It doesn’t undergo some magical transformation at the Treasury to become government money.

Those are the same pounds that were earned by you on the factory floor, on the hospital ward, in the office…

…and we will never forget that we have a moral duty not to spend your money but to save it where we can.

Second, our philosophy is different.

We don’t believe in top-down control; we believe in local control.

We don’t believe in taking power; we believe in giving it away.

And this will have a massive impact on our quest to cut out waste and deliver more for less.

It’s not just that a pound spent closer is a pound spent wiser – by those who really know the needs of a local community.

It’s also that a pound spent closer is a pound spent more efficiently – by those who have an interest in keeping costs down.

And third, our approach is different.

I don’t think people get quite how radical we propose to be.

The next Conservative government will be the first genuinely post-bureaucratic government in the world.

We will ditch all the wasteful, costly, old-world bureaucratic methods and instead use post-bureaucratic tools.

And when it comes to cutting waste, nothing is more important to this agenda than transparency.

We’re going to publish every item of government spending over £25,000 online.

And we’re going to publish every government contract worth over £25,000 in full – every clause, every performance measure, every penalty trigger – too.

Think what this simple act of throwing things open will mean.

It will mean an army of ‘armchair auditors’ will be crawling all over the books, scrutinising them and acting as a straitjacket on wasteful spending.

It will mean the Minister who lazily signs off a monster contract without checking if he could get it cheaper will be caught out and will have to answer for their actions.

It will mean that businesses and social enterprises can compete to offer better government services for less money.

I defy anyone to call our plans of changing the way government works timid.

They are bold – and they will make a massive difference.

And they are why we can look the British people in the eye and say a Tory pound will go further than a Labour pound…

…that good government costs less with the Conservatives.

CONCLUSION

We know what we’re fighting for.

When you’re out there on the doorstep, when you’re writing a leaflet at 2am, when you’re pounding the streets for hours I want you to keep two pictures of Wales in your mind.

First, an image of Wales under Labour.

Limping on with high unemployment, increasing child poverty and a government who puts this country in the same bracket as a developing nation.

Then alongside that, a vision of Wales with a Conservative government.

It would be a more confident Wales, with public spending under control and the deficit being cut.

A more prosperous Wales, with enterprise unleashed and jobs created.

And a more family-friendly Wales, with marriage recognised in the tax system and parents given more time with their children.

These two visions of Wales are so far apart, but they come together in the polling booth with the real choice that people have at this election.

It’s our job to keep explaining that choice for the next sixty days.

Yes, we have a fight on our hands, but believe me – the Wales that would emerge from our victory – a confident, prosperous, family friendly Wales – will be worth it.

So let’s get out there and win it.”

As with my previous posting on this matter any tax raising powers which could be made available to the Welsh Assembly would need to be approved at Westminster

One of the main issues discussed at Bangor University were the options available to those who wish to give the Welsh Assembly tax raising powers.  I am a sceptic on the issue – I do not feel that such a change would be beneficial to Wales in any way.  I was in a minority with respect to the political parties represented on the panel but not so in terms of the academic view of the argument as presented.

Plaid and Labour argued for the provision of such tax raising powers with some passion whilst the Liberals offered a slightly technical (and in my view ineffective) list of possible tax raising areas for the Assembly.  I argued against the concept on the grounds of the damage it would do to the Welsh economy.  The reason for this is simple.  We have, thankfully, an open border with England.  Around 85% of the Welsh population live within 50 miles of the English border.  This is crucial and makes a separate tax system in Wales a damaging prospect for all of us.  I’ll try and explain why in relation to both in-direct and direct taxation options.

In-direct Taxation

Gerald Holtham gave a concise presentation which in my view demolished the options in terms of giving the Welsh Assembly powers to increase in-direct taxation.  I might be wrong, but the way in which he discussed the issue indicated very strongly that the report that he and the commission are preparing will not advocate powers to WAG in relation to in-direct taxation.  Why?  Many of his concerns related to the population structure of Wales and our proximity to heavily populated parts of England. 

Imagine the power to increase or reduce VAT being devolved.  It would play havoc with the economy of Wales and the border counties of England since any significant change would lead to trade moving to England or vice versa.  As we saw this December, the option of saving 2.5% on VAT resulted in people buying electrical goods, white goods and cars before the VAT rate returned to the previous 17.5% rate.  In my view an increase in the Welsh VAT rate would result in an artificial boost to Chester and the North West at the expense of Llandudno and North Wales.  A short drive is well worth the effort if you are saving 2.5% on major purchases. 

Some argued that we could reduce VAT in Wales – but under a devolved system of government would that be a positive development?  The border counties of England and the Welsh Assembly could embark on a race to the bottom cutting VAT for a short term boost to trade but at the expense of the long term tax base of the country.  A variation of in-direct taxes will simply not work in a country where the vast majority of the population live within a 50 mile drive of the border.  In the same way, changes in fuel duty, alcohol or tobacco duty would also create an incentive to travel in order to purchase these products and could well lead to the smuggling problems which have decimated the retail economy of the border counties of the Republic of Ireland.

Increasing in-direct taxation in Wales will not work.

Direct Taxation

The big one here would be Income Tax.  What would be the impact of the Welsh Assembly increasing income tax?  Well it depends.  The perverse truth is that if powers on income tax were devolved then it might be possible to increase the standard income tax rate by 1% or even 2%.  A 2% increase on the standard rate of income tax would cost a worker on £20,000 per year around £260.  Although such a change would be resented it would be difficult to argue that people would automatically decide to move across the border to avoid a few hundred pounds of tax.     

However, the position is completely different if the decision was made to increase taxes on the higher paid in society.  An increase of 10% on the higher rate of tax (which would generate around the same amount of money as a 1% increase on the basic rate in a Welsh context) would be a disaster.  A worker on £80,000 per year would be around £3,800 worse off under such a change.  More than enough to justify a house move I suspect.

Thus the technical argument in relation to income tax is that you could probably get away with increasing income tax rates in Wales but ONLY if you decide to increase income tax for the lowest paid workers whilst leaving the higher rate tax payers alone.  Hardly just and equitable is it?

I invite you to conclude, from these quick examples, that tax increasing powers for the Welsh Assembly should be opposed because they would be a huge handicap to the Welsh economy and an unfair burden on a society which is increasingly less prosperous in comparison with England.  It should also be noted that these comments are not academic issues.  We are facing a referendum on further Assembly powers; there is a commission out there considering tax raising powers for the Welsh Assembly.  Whoever you elect to be your next MP will need to be prepared to debate these issues in Parliament because any change will come from Westminster not Cardiff Bay.

None of my opponents seem ready to go further than their rhetoric.  When they knock on your door ask them how much their ideas for the future of the Welsh Assembly will cost you.  Ask them how increasing VAT rates in Wales will help tourism and retailers in Llandudno.  Ask them how increasing income tax on the poor and not the rich could be justified.  Ask them why they do not want to discuss their ideas in any real detail.  I suspect that you will be disappointed by their responses.

I’ll finish this three part posting at some point by discussing borrowing powers for the Welsh Assembly. 

Guto

Out in Gogarth again this afternoon.

A good response but slow progress due to the detail and scope of questions from Guest House owners and Hoteliers in Abbey Road.  The good news is that I kept being invited for a coffee.  the bad news is the number of people who said that whilst business was good there was an increased perception amongst visitors that Llandudno was not what it used to be as recently as five years ago.  As a Town this perception needs to be addressed.  As a family friendly resort we have a duty to ensure that any fall in standards of behaviour within the town and the problems identified with some establishments (food and drink) are taken seriously by both the licensing authorities and the police.  On the basis of Friday night I have a significant degree of confidence that the local police team are responding to these issues in a positive and proactive way but we should always remember that it's a partnership approach that will work.

Such a partnership includes the business owners, the local authority and the people of Llandudno.  It should also, clearly, include all local elected representatives.

Allan yn Gogarth eto brynhawn heddiw.  Ymateb da iawn, yn enwedig felly ymysg busnesau bychain yr ardal sef gwestai a sefydliadau Gwely a Brecwast yn benodol.  Er bod yr ymdeimlad yn gadarnhaol iawn o ran perfformiad Llandudno fel canolfan ymwelwyr o safbwynt economaidd cafwyd rhyw gymaint o gysondeb yn y farn fod y dref wedi gweld dirywiad dros y bum mlynedd ddiwethaf.  Y mae'n allweddol ynmateb i hyn a thrio sicrhau nad oes dirywiad pellach yn hyder y bobl fusnes yma a'i cwsmeriaid.

Guto