Chris Grayling MP made it clear at conference that we will build more prison places in order to avoid a situation where convicted criminals are allowed free early or not even sent to prison simply because of the cost / lack of space.  I applaud his decision.  When I hear the complaints of people even in an area such as Aberconwy about constant anti-social behaviour, petty vandalism, assault and occasionally even worse the common theme is almost always the fact that the victims are stunned by the lack of any real penalty inflicted upon their tormentors.  If there is a problem with the Justice system is seems to me that we are far too understanding of criminals and rather too willing to forget the victim.

However, the usual suspects have immediately rounded on the Grayling promise with their usual claptrap about prison not working and the 'fact' that the UK imprison more people than any other 'civilised' country.  Note the word 'fact' and also the emotive use of the word 'civilised'.  I'll tackle the later first;

The use of the of the word civilised is deliberate.  It implies that civilised countries do not send people to prison and certainly not in large numbers.  Well in my view civilised countries do not allow the law to be broken with impunity and the criminal behaviour of so many to be tolerated at the expense of the law abiding.  Consider some figures (all from the Home Office - Research and Stats. Digest 4.)

0.1% of vandalism acts result in a prison sentence

0.6% of domestic burglaries result in a prison sentence

1.2% of car thefts result in a prison sentence

1.6% of assaults result in a prison sentence

0.7% of robbery cases result in a prison sentence

In total, around 0.3% of all crime results in a prison sentence.  I will re-state this point.  99.7% of cases DO NOT result in a prison sentence.  And yet the victim has suffered in 100% of cases.  Is this how a civilised society should behave?

Now to the 'fact'.  Do we send too many people to prison?  How many times have you heard the claim from Labour politicians or Guardian readers and the BBC that the UK sends more people to prison than any other country?  I'm sure that you have lost count.

However, this claim is based on nothing more than the number of people in prison.  It does not take any account of the number of people in prison compared to the number of recorded crimes.  And this is where things become interesting.  Which is the more 'civilised' country - the UK or Canada?  The UK or Switzerland?  The UK or France?  The UK or the Republic of Ireland?  The UK or Spain?

The media and left wing political class would have you believe that we are throwing many more people into prison than any of the countries I have listed above.  In actual numbers this would be correct.  But if we ask;

"How many people are sent to prison per 100,000 recorded crimes"

then all of the countries mentioned above and quite a few others including Portugal, the Czech Republic and Italy all send more people to prison in relation to the number of recorded crimes.  The UK on this basis is a very moderate user of prison as a response to crime. 

Our actual prison population is not high because we send too many people to prison.  It is high because we have a higher crime rate.  In many cases the UK has a track record of being far too lenient as shown by C. Murray in his paper 'Does Prison Work?'  In a comparison with 15 other western democracies the UK had the fifth most lenient sentences for rape, the most lenient in relation to assault and the fourth most lenient in relation to robbery.

Murray also shows a direct relationship between the number of prisoners held by the UK per 100,000 crimes in 1950 and the way in which this figure has fallen significantly since 1950.  From a high of almost 12,000 prisoners per 100,000 crimes in 1955 we have fallen to a level of slightly above 2,000 per 100,000 crimes.  In other words, if we had continued to send people to prison at the same rate as they did in the 1950's we would now have a prison population of around 450,000 not our current level of around 85,000. 

What Murray also shows is as the numbers in prison compared to the number of crimes has fallen significantly so has the number of crimes committed in the UK.  In other words it would appear that the facts show that as we become more lenient in terms of sentencing policy we encourage more crime. 

Is there a link between sending people to prison and recorded crime?  Yes is the simple answer.  An analysis of 6 countries between 1987 and 1995 found a very interesting relationship between the percentage change in your chance of going to prison with the percentage change in the number of recorded crimes.  The results were very interesting;

In England & Wales a 17% reduced risk of imprisonment led to a 31% increase in recorded crime

In the Republic of Ireland a 13% reduced risk of imprisonment led to a 20% increase in recorded crime

In France a 9% reduced risk of imprisonment led to a 16% increase in recorded crime

In Austria a 33% reduced risk of imprisonment led to a 24% increase in recorded crime

In the Netherlands a 9% higher risk of imprisonment led to a 8% increase in recorded crime

In Denmark a 4% higher  risk of imprisonment led to a 3% increase in recorded crime

Do I need to go on?  What is apparent is that as the risk of imprisonment falls the crime rate increases.  Does prison work as a deterrent?  It would appear so.  Is Chris Grayling right to promise more prison places?  On balance, yes.

Guto Bebb